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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Ortiz

Villarreal

S U U U S

4–3

Full-time

Celta

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

3,64 xG 2,72

45% Possession 55%

22 Shots 18

9 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Celta 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
2	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.0	6
3	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
4	Real Madrid	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.3	4
5	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
6	Leganes	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	4
7	Vallecano	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
8	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
9	Sociedad	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
10	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
11	Getafe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.7	2
12	Betis	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
13	Las Palmas	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
14	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
15	Ath Bilbao	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
16	Alaves	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
17	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
18	Girona	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
19	Espanol	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.5	0
20	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
2	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
3	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
4	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.5	3
5	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
8	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
9	Las Palmas	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
10	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Mallorca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
13	Alaves	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
14	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
15	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
16	Sociedad	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
17	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
18	Espanol	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Vallecano	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
2	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.2	3
3	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
4	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
5	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
6	Sevilla	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
7	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Real Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Leganes	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
10	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
11	Girona	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
12	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Alaves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
14	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
15	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
16	Espanol	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
17	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
18	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.