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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Villarreal

S S T S S

4–4

Full-time

Real Madrid

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

2,0

2,8

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 60%

39%

81%

Points per game

1,4

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 61%

78%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,7

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–4

1,78 xG 1,04

43% Possession 57%

21 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 8. · Real Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	36	29	6	1	+61	+35.5	93
2	Barcelona	36	24	7	5	+31	+37.2	79
3	Girona	36	23	6	7	+30	+13.6	75
4	Ath Madrid	36	23	4	9	+28	+21.7	73
5	Ath Bilbao	36	17	11	8	+21	+10.4	62
6	Sociedad	36	15	12	9	+12	+6.4	57
7	Betis	36	14	14	8	+5	-6.6	56
8	Villarreal	36	14	9	13	+0	-4.2	51
9	Valencia	36	13	9	14	-3	-5.3	48
10	Alaves	37	12	9	16	-10	+0.4	45
11	Getafe	37	10	13	14	-11	-7.4	43
12	Sevilla	36	10	11	15	-3	-11.1	41
13	Osasuna	36	11	8	17	-14	-8.7	41
14	Las Palmas	36	10	8	18	-14	-21.6	38
15	Vallecano	36	8	14	14	-15	-2.3	38
16	Celta	36	9	10	17	-12	-3.8	37
17	Mallorca	36	7	15	14	-12	-6.1	36
18	Cadiz	36	6	14	16	-24	-14.2	32
19	Granada	36	4	9	23	-33	-20.0	21
20	Almeria	36	2	11	23	-37	-13.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	16	2	0	+39	+25.6	50
2	Ath Madrid	18	16	1	1	+23	+18.5	49
3	Girona	18	14	2	2	+26	+12.0	44
4	Barcelona	18	14	1	3	+19	+21.1	43
5	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+15.8	39
6	Betis	18	9	7	2	+10	+6.9	34
7	Alaves	19	9	4	6	+4	+7.4	31
8	Sociedad	18	8	6	4	+8	+4.6	30
9	Valencia	18	8	6	4	+8	+4.4	30
10	Getafe	18	8	5	5	-1	+2.6	29
11	Villarreal	18	7	4	7	+4	+7.1	25
12	Mallorca	18	6	7	5	+1	-1.2	25
13	Sevilla	18	6	5	7	+1	-2.3	23
14	Las Palmas	18	6	5	7	+0	-5.4	23
15	Celta	18	6	5	7	-2	+11.6	23
16	Cadiz	18	5	8	5	-3	+4.6	23
17	Osasuna	18	6	4	8	-7	-0.1	22
18	Vallecano	18	4	8	6	-7	+0.4	20
19	Granada	18	4	6	8	-7	-2.0	18
20	Almeria	18	0	8	10	-19	-0.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+22	+9.9	43
2	Barcelona	18	10	6	2	+12	+16.1	36
3	Girona	18	9	4	5	+4	+1.6	31
4	Sociedad	18	7	6	5	+4	+1.8	27
5	Villarreal	18	7	5	6	-4	-11.2	26
6	Ath Madrid	18	7	3	8	+5	+3.2	24
7	Ath Bilbao	18	6	5	7	-1	-5.5	23
8	Betis	18	5	7	6	-5	-13.4	22
9	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-7	-8.6	19
10	Sevilla	18	4	6	8	-4	-8.9	18
11	Vallecano	18	4	6	8	-8	-2.8	18
12	Valencia	18	5	3	10	-11	-9.8	18
13	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-14	-16.2	15
14	Celta	18	3	5	10	-10	-15.4	14
15	Getafe	19	2	8	9	-10	-10.1	14
16	Alaves	18	3	5	10	-14	-7.0	14
17	Mallorca	18	1	8	9	-13	-4.9	11
18	Almeria	18	2	3	13	-18	-13.0	9
19	Cadiz	18	1	6	11	-21	-18.8	9
20	Granada	18	0	3	15	-26	-18.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.