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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Burnley

S S U U S

2–1

Full-time

Watford

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

1,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 51%

52%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

19%

60%

Both score Ø 42%

29%

55%

Average goals

1,6

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,21 xG 0,46

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 2. · Watford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	21	12	6	3	+22	+21.9	42
2	Burnley	21	11	8	2	+18	+6.4	41
3	Sheffield United	19	12	5	2	+17	+8.5	41
4	Sunderland	19	11	6	2	+16	+5.0	39
5	Blackburn	20	11	4	5	+8	+0.7	37
6	Middlesbrough	21	10	4	7	+10	+15.3	34
7	Watford	20	10	4	6	+3	-3.2	34
8	West Brom	21	7	11	3	+8	+2.6	32
9	Sheffield Weds	22	9	5	8	-2	-3.3	32
10	Bristol City	20	6	9	5	+1	+3.0	27
11	Swansea	22	7	6	9	+0	-0.6	27
12	Norwich	21	6	8	7	+4	+3.7	26
13	Millwall	20	6	7	7	+2	+6.9	25
14	Luton	22	7	4	11	-13	-2.6	25
15	Derby	22	6	6	10	-1	-0.5	24
16	Coventry	21	6	5	10	-6	+11.9	23
17	Preston	21	4	11	6	-6	-2.4	23
18	QPR	21	4	10	7	-6	-6.1	22
19	Stoke	22	5	7	10	-7	-11.4	22
20	Portsmouth	20	4	8	8	-10	-8.1	20
21	Hull	22	4	7	11	-10	-3.6	19
22	Oxford	20	4	6	10	-12	-12.2	18
23	Cardiff	20	4	6	10	-13	-8.9	18
24	Plymouth	20	4	5	11	-23	-23.1	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	11	9	1	1	+19	+14.9	28
2	Watford	10	8	2	0	+10	+1.4	26
3	Sheffield United	9	8	1	0	+13	+9.5	25
4	Blackburn	10	7	1	2	+8	+3.3	22
5	Sunderland	9	6	3	0	+11	+5.8	21
6	Luton	12	6	3	3	+3	+3.2	21
7	Burnley	10	5	5	0	+10	+4.2	20
8	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.2	20
9	Derby	10	5	2	3	+8	+6.4	17
10	Millwall	11	5	2	4	+4	+6.3	17
11	Norwich	10	4	4	2	+11	+5.6	16
12	Sheffield Weds	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
13	Oxford	11	4	4	3	-1	-4.8	16
14	Plymouth	9	4	3	2	+3	-3.0	15
15	West Brom	10	3	6	1	+3	+2.5	15
16	Preston	11	3	6	2	+1	+1.0	15
17	Bristol City	9	3	5	1	+5	+3.8	14
18	Coventry	10	4	2	4	+2	+10.5	14
19	Stoke	11	3	5	3	+2	-2.6	14
20	Swansea	10	3	4	3	+2	+6.2	13
21	Portsmouth	10	3	4	3	+2	+0.8	13
22	Cardiff	10	4	0	6	-3	-2.5	12
23	QPR	11	2	5	4	-3	+1.7	11
24	Hull	12	2	5	5	-3	+1.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	11	6	3	2	+8	+2.2	21
2	Sunderland	10	5	3	2	+5	-0.9	18
3	West Brom	11	4	5	2	+5	+0.1	17
4	Sheffield United	10	4	4	2	+4	-1.0	16
5	Sheffield Weds	10	5	1	4	-2	-4.1	16
6	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	+0	-2.6	15
7	Middlesbrough	10	4	2	4	+5	+7.1	14
8	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+3	+7.0	14
9	Swansea	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.8	14
10	Bristol City	11	3	4	4	-4	-0.8	13
11	QPR	10	2	5	3	-3	-7.8	11
12	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-7	-1.9	10
13	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-8	+1.3	9
14	Millwall	9	1	5	3	-2	+0.6	8
15	Watford	10	2	2	6	-7	-4.7	8
16	Hull	10	2	2	6	-7	-5.3	8
17	Preston	10	1	5	4	-7	-3.4	8
18	Stoke	11	2	2	7	-9	-8.7	8
19	Derby	12	1	4	7	-9	-6.9	7
20	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	-12	-8.9	7
21	Cardiff	10	0	6	4	-10	-6.4	6
22	Luton	10	1	1	8	-16	-5.8	4
23	Oxford	9	0	2	7	-11	-7.4	2
24	Plymouth	11	0	2	9	-26	-20.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.