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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Barcelona

S U S U S

4–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 46%

43%

48%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

43%

67%

Both score Ø 62%

62%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

57% Possession 43%

9 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 5. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	22	15	5	2	+27	50
2	Sevilla	23	13	8	2	+18	47
3	Betis	22	12	4	6	+16	40
4	Ath Madrid	21	10	6	5	+10	36
5	Barcelona	21	9	8	4	+9	35
6	Sociedad	22	9	8	5	+1	35
7	Villarreal	22	8	8	6	+13	32
8	Ath Bilbao	22	7	10	5	+4	31
9	Vallecano	22	9	4	9	+3	31
10	Celta	23	8	6	9	+3	30
11	Valencia	23	7	9	7	-1	30
12	Osasuna	23	7	8	8	-5	29
13	Espanol	22	7	6	9	-4	27
14	Elche	23	6	8	9	-5	26
15	Getafe	23	6	7	10	-3	25
16	Granada	22	5	9	8	-7	24
17	Mallorca	22	5	8	9	-15	23
18	Cadiz	23	3	9	11	-18	18
19	Alaves	23	4	5	14	-21	17
20	Levante	22	1	8	13	-25	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	11	8	3	0	+14	27
2	Vallecano	11	8	2	1	+15	26
3	Real Madrid	11	7	4	0	+16	25
4	Villarreal	12	7	3	2	+16	24
5	Ath Madrid	10	6	3	1	+9	21
6	Betis	11	6	2	3	+11	20
7	Barcelona	10	6	2	2	+8	20
8	Getafe	12	6	2	4	+6	20
9	Espanol	11	6	2	3	+3	20
10	Sociedad	11	5	4	2	+1	19
11	Valencia	12	4	6	2	+5	18
12	Elche	11	4	5	2	+2	17
13	Mallorca	11	3	6	2	+1	15
14	Granada	11	4	3	4	-1	15
15	Ath Bilbao	10	4	2	4	+1	14
16	Celta	12	4	2	6	+0	14
17	Osasuna	12	2	6	4	-6	12
18	Alaves	12	3	3	6	-6	12
19	Levante	11	1	6	4	-6	9
20	Cadiz	11	0	6	5	-9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Betis	11	6	2	3	+5	20
3	Sevilla	12	5	5	2	+4	20
4	Ath Bilbao	12	3	8	1	+3	17
5	Osasuna	11	5	2	4	+1	17
6	Celta	11	4	4	3	+3	16
7	Sociedad	11	4	4	3	+0	16
8	Ath Madrid	11	4	3	4	+1	15
9	Barcelona	11	3	6	2	+1	15
10	Valencia	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Cadiz	12	3	3	6	-9	12
12	Granada	11	1	6	4	-6	9
13	Elche	12	2	3	7	-7	9
14	Villarreal	10	1	5	4	-3	8
15	Mallorca	11	2	2	7	-16	8
16	Espanol	11	1	4	6	-7	7
17	Getafe	11	0	5	6	-9	5
18	Vallecano	11	1	2	8	-12	5
19	Alaves	11	1	2	8	-15	5
20	Levante	11	0	2	9	-19	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.