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La Liga

Referee: José Sánchez

Ath Bilbao

S U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 15/14 matches

Win Ø 59%

47%

71%

Points per game

1,7

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,5

2,1

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,80 xG 1,82

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 4. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+31	+19.8	37
2	Real Madrid	14	10	3	1	+19	+15.0	33
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	5	1	+18	+14.0	32
4	Ath Bilbao	15	7	5	3	+8	+6.9	26
5	Villarreal	14	7	5	2	+4	+7.5	26
6	Mallorca	16	7	3	6	-2	-0.9	24
7	Osasuna	15	6	5	4	-3	-5.7	23
8	Girona	15	6	4	5	+2	+4.5	22
9	Sociedad	15	6	3	6	+2	+3.0	21
10	Betis	15	5	5	5	-2	+3.2	20
11	Sevilla	15	5	4	6	-5	-2.2	19
12	Celta	15	5	3	7	-4	+4.3	18
13	Vallecano	14	4	4	6	-2	-0.9	16
14	Las Palmas	15	4	3	8	-6	-14.4	15
15	Leganes	15	3	6	6	-6	-11.9	15
16	Alaves	15	4	2	9	-9	-5.4	14
17	Getafe	15	2	7	6	-3	-0.5	13
18	Espanol	14	4	1	9	-12	-14.5	13
19	Valencia	13	2	4	7	-8	-8.6	10
20	Valladolid	15	2	3	10	-22	-13.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+13	+11.6	21
2	Ath Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	+12.7	17
3	Osasuna	8	5	2	1	+5	+2.8	17
4	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+14	+11.1	15
5	Ath Bilbao	8	4	3	1	+6	+3.9	15
6	Celta	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.7	14
7	Betis	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.5	14
8	Girona	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.8	13
9	Sevilla	8	4	1	3	-1	+2.2	13
10	Villarreal	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.0	12
11	Espanol	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.7	12
12	Mallorca	9	3	3	3	-3	-3.4	12
13	Getafe	8	2	5	1	+3	+5.5	11
14	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	Sociedad	8	3	1	4	+0	+3.4	10
16	Leganes	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.2	10
17	Valencia	6	2	2	2	+2	-0.5	8
18	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.5	8
19	Las Palmas	7	1	3	3	-2	-4.3	6
20	Valladolid	8	1	3	4	-7	-5.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	7	1	2	+17	+8.8	22
2	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.3	15
3	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+2	+5.5	14
4	Real Madrid	6	3	3	0	+6	+3.4	12
5	Mallorca	7	4	0	3	+1	+2.5	12
6	Ath Bilbao	7	3	2	2	+2	+3.0	11
7	Sociedad	7	3	2	2	+2	-0.4	11
8	Girona	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.3	9
9	Las Palmas	8	3	0	5	-4	-10.1	9
10	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.4	8
11	Sevilla	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.4	6
12	Betis	8	1	3	4	-6	-4.2	6
13	Osasuna	7	1	3	3	-8	-8.6	6
14	Leganes	8	0	5	3	-5	-10.7	5
15	Celta	7	1	1	5	-8	-0.4	4
16	Alaves	8	1	0	7	-9	-3.1	3
17	Valladolid	7	1	0	6	-15	-7.5	3
18	Getafe	7	0	2	5	-6	-6.0	2
19	Valencia	7	0	2	5	-10	-8.0	2
20	Espanol	7	0	1	6	-13	-12.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.