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La Liga

Referee: José Sánchez

Valencia

U S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Sevilla

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Sevilla

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 29%

27%

30%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 59%

60%

57%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,25 xG 0,81

52% Possession 48%

8 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 15. · Sevilla 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	30	21	4	5	+54	+38.9	67
2	Real Madrid	30	19	6	5	+32	+26.8	63
3	Ath Madrid	30	17	9	4	+25	+20.0	60
4	Ath Bilbao	30	14	12	4	+22	+16.5	54
5	Villarreal	29	13	9	7	+12	+19.6	48
6	Betis	30	13	9	8	+4	+9.2	48
7	Celta	30	12	7	11	+1	+10.2	43
8	Sociedad	30	12	5	13	-2	+0.1	41
9	Vallecano	30	10	10	10	-2	-1.6	40
10	Mallorca	30	11	7	12	-8	+1.2	40
11	Getafe	30	10	9	11	+5	-6.2	39
12	Sevilla	30	9	9	12	-7	-8.8	36
13	Osasuna	30	7	14	9	-9	-9.2	35
14	Girona	30	9	7	14	-9	-3.5	34
15	Valencia	30	8	10	12	-13	-10.6	34
16	Espanol	29	8	8	13	-9	-20.8	32
17	Alaves	30	7	9	14	-11	-2.7	30
18	Leganes	30	6	10	14	-18	-24.0	28
19	Las Palmas	30	6	8	16	-17	-27.5	26
20	Valladolid	30	4	4	22	-50	-27.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	12	1	2	+21	+22.2	37
2	Barcelona	15	11	1	3	+30	+29.4	34
3	Ath Madrid	15	10	4	1	+15	+18.4	34
4	Ath Bilbao	15	8	6	1	+18	+12.9	30
5	Celta	15	9	3	3	+10	+6.7	30
6	Betis	15	8	5	2	+8	+15.0	29
7	Osasuna	15	6	6	3	+4	+2.9	24
8	Valencia	15	7	3	5	+3	+2.5	24
9	Espanol	15	6	6	3	+3	-5.8	24
10	Sociedad	15	7	2	6	+2	+4.2	23
11	Mallorca	16	6	5	5	-1	-0.5	23
12	Villarreal	14	5	6	3	+8	+10.3	21
13	Girona	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.5	21
14	Vallecano	15	5	5	5	-3	+5.9	20
15	Getafe	15	4	7	4	+2	+2.1	19
16	Sevilla	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.5	19
17	Leganes	15	5	3	7	-7	-9.3	18
18	Alaves	14	4	4	6	-4	+0.8	16
19	Las Palmas	15	3	5	7	-6	-6.8	14
20	Valladolid	15	3	4	8	-17	-8.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	3	2	+24	+9.5	33
2	Villarreal	15	8	3	4	+4	+9.3	27
3	Real Madrid	15	7	5	3	+11	+4.6	26
4	Ath Madrid	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.7	26
5	Ath Bilbao	15	6	6	3	+4	+3.6	24
6	Getafe	15	6	2	7	+3	-8.3	20
7	Vallecano	15	5	5	5	+1	-7.6	20
8	Betis	15	5	4	6	-4	-5.9	19
9	Sociedad	15	5	3	7	-4	-4.1	18
10	Sevilla	15	4	5	6	-2	-7.3	17
11	Mallorca	14	5	2	7	-7	+1.7	17
12	Alaves	16	3	5	8	-7	-3.5	14
13	Celta	15	3	4	8	-9	+3.5	13
14	Girona	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.0	13
15	Las Palmas	15	3	3	9	-11	-20.7	12
16	Osasuna	15	1	8	6	-13	-12.1	11
17	Leganes	15	1	7	7	-11	-14.7	10
18	Valencia	15	1	7	7	-16	-13.0	10
19	Espanol	14	2	2	10	-12	-15.1	8
20	Valladolid	15	1	0	14	-33	-19.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.