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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Ortiz

Las Palmas

U U T U T

2–3

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,16 xG 2,24

65% Possession 35%

15 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Las Palmas 19. · Ath Bilbao 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+13	+7.9	15
2	Real Madrid	5	3	2	0	+7	+6.7	11
3	Villarreal	5	3	2	0	+3	+1.5	11
4	Celta	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.8	9
5	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+4	+4.2	8
6	Alaves	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
7	Girona	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.4	7
8	Espanol	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.6	7
9	Osasuna	4	2	1	1	-2	-2.3	7
10	Betis	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.2	5
11	Mallorca	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.2	5
12	Sevilla	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
13	Leganes	5	1	2	2	-2	-3.6	5
14	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.6	4
15	Ath Bilbao	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.5	4
16	Sociedad	5	1	1	3	-3	-3.0	4
17	Valladolid	5	1	1	3	-11	-5.5	4
18	Getafe	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.9	3
19	Las Palmas	4	0	2	2	-3	-4.7	2
20	Valencia	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celta	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.0	9
2	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.0	7
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.2	6
4	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
5	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
6	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.4	4
7	Betis	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.8	4
8	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.1	4
9	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
10	Valladolid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
11	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
12	Girona	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
13	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
14	Sevilla	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
15	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.6	2
16	Getafe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.8	2
17	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.8	2
18	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
19	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
20	Sociedad	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.7	9
2	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
3	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
4	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
5	Sociedad	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
6	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
7	Girona	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.6	4
8	Mallorca	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.7	3
9	Alaves	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.9	3
10	Sevilla	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
11	Leganes	3	0	2	1	-2	-3.6	2
12	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
13	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
14	Betis	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.7	1
15	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
16	Celta	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.2	0
17	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	Las Palmas	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
19	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.2	0
20	Valladolid	3	0	0	3	-12	-6.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.