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La Liga

Referee: Adrián Cordero

Alaves

U U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Valencia

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,7

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 24%

17%

30%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

39%

61%

Both score Ø 59%

43%

74%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

9 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 19. · Valencia 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	24	16	6	2	+28	54
2	Sevilla	24	14	8	2	+20	50
3	Betis	23	12	4	7	+14	40
4	Ath Madrid	23	11	6	6	+9	39
5	Barcelona	22	10	8	4	+11	38
6	Villarreal	24	9	9	6	+15	36
7	Sociedad	22	9	8	5	+1	35
8	Ath Bilbao	23	8	10	5	+5	34
9	Osasuna	24	8	8	8	-2	32
10	Celta	24	8	7	9	+3	31
11	Vallecano	23	9	4	10	+0	31
12	Valencia	23	7	9	7	-1	30
13	Espanol	23	7	6	10	-5	27
14	Elche	24	6	8	10	-7	26
15	Getafe	24	6	7	11	-4	25
16	Granada	23	5	9	9	-8	24
17	Mallorca	22	5	8	9	-15	23
18	Cadiz	24	3	10	11	-18	19
19	Alaves	23	4	5	14	-21	17
20	Levante	22	1	8	13	-25	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	12	9	3	0	+16	30
2	Real Madrid	12	8	4	0	+17	28
3	Vallecano	12	8	2	2	+12	26
4	Villarreal	13	7	4	2	+16	25
5	Ath Madrid	11	7	3	1	+10	24
6	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+10	23
7	Betis	12	6	2	4	+9	20
8	Getafe	12	6	2	4	+6	20
9	Espanol	11	6	2	3	+3	20
10	Sociedad	11	5	4	2	+1	19
11	Valencia	12	4	6	2	+5	18
12	Ath Bilbao	11	5	2	4	+2	17
13	Elche	11	4	5	2	+2	17
14	Mallorca	11	3	6	2	+1	15
15	Granada	11	4	3	4	-1	15
16	Celta	12	4	2	6	+0	14
17	Osasuna	12	2	6	4	-6	12
18	Alaves	12	3	3	6	-6	12
19	Levante	11	1	6	4	-6	9
20	Cadiz	12	0	7	5	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	8	2	2	+11	26
2	Betis	11	6	2	3	+5	20
3	Osasuna	12	6	2	4	+4	20
4	Sevilla	12	5	5	2	+4	20
5	Celta	12	4	5	3	+3	17
6	Ath Bilbao	12	3	8	1	+3	17
7	Sociedad	11	4	4	3	+0	16
8	Barcelona	11	3	6	2	+1	15
9	Ath Madrid	12	4	3	5	-1	15
10	Valencia	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Cadiz	12	3	3	6	-9	12
12	Villarreal	11	2	5	4	-1	11
13	Granada	12	1	6	5	-7	9
14	Elche	13	2	3	8	-9	9
15	Mallorca	11	2	2	7	-16	8
16	Espanol	12	1	4	7	-8	7
17	Getafe	12	0	5	7	-10	5
18	Vallecano	11	1	2	8	-12	5
19	Alaves	11	1	2	8	-15	5
20	Levante	11	0	2	9	-19	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.