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La Liga

Referee: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes

Alaves

U S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Valencia

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,30 xG 0,76

39% Possession 61%

7 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 14. · Valencia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+3.7	12
2	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+9	+4.0	7
3	Girona	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
4	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.5	7
5	Cadiz	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.2	7
6	Sociedad	4	1	3	0	+2	+1.1	6
7	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.2	6
8	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.8	6
9	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
10	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	-3	-1.3	6
11	Betis	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.0	4
12	Celta	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.1	4
13	Getafe	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.5	4
14	Alaves	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.8	3
15	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.5	3
16	Granada	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.2	3
17	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
18	Mallorca	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.3	1
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.2	1
20	Sevilla	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
2	Sociedad	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
3	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
4	Girona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
5	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
6	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
7	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
9	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
10	Valencia	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
11	Granada	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
12	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
13	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
15	Villarreal	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
16	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
17	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
18	Celta	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
19	Almeria	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.1	0
20	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-7	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
3	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.5	6
4	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+7	+2.5	4
5	Celta	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
6	Barcelona	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.1	4
7	Girona	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
8	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
9	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
10	Betis	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
11	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.2	3
12	Almeria	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
13	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.9	1
15	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
16	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.3	0
18	Alaves	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
19	Granada	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
20	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.