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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Girona

T T T U S

0–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 38%

29%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

56%

65%

Both score Ø 64%

56%

71%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,25 xG 2,14

55% Possession 45%

7 Shots 14

0 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 16. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	25	4	5	+58	+44.7	79
2	Real Madrid	34	23	6	5	+36	+27.8	75
3	Ath Madrid	34	19	10	5	+29	+24.3	67
4	Ath Bilbao	34	16	13	5	+24	+15.5	61
5	Villarreal	34	16	10	8	+13	+18.3	58
6	Betis	34	16	9	9	+10	+10.6	57
7	Celta	35	14	7	14	+1	+10.2	49
8	Vallecano	35	12	11	12	-5	-3.7	47
9	Valencia	35	11	12	12	-8	-6.3	45
10	Osasuna	34	10	14	10	-8	-9.7	44
11	Mallorca	34	12	8	14	-8	-3.1	44
12	Sociedad	34	12	7	15	-5	+1.4	43
13	Getafe	35	10	9	16	-3	-7.6	39
14	Espanol	34	10	9	15	-8	-21.6	39
15	Sevilla	35	9	11	15	-10	-4.8	38
16	Girona	34	10	8	16	-11	-3.4	38
17	Alaves	34	8	11	15	-11	-4.0	35
18	Las Palmas	35	8	8	19	-17	-29.3	32
19	Leganes	34	6	13	15	-19	-26.7	31
20	Valladolid	34	4	4	26	-58	-32.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+23	+23.8	43
2	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+32	+33.1	40
3	Ath Madrid	17	12	4	1	+20	+22.5	40
4	Ath Bilbao	17	10	6	1	+21	+13.9	36
5	Celta	18	11	3	4	+12	+7.5	36
6	Betis	17	9	5	3	+11	+16.0	32
7	Valencia	18	9	4	5	+7	+5.7	31
8	Osasuna	17	8	6	3	+6	+3.0	30
9	Villarreal	17	7	7	3	+11	+11.7	28
10	Espanol	17	7	6	4	+3	-5.7	27
11	Girona	17	7	3	7	+2	+6.9	24
12	Sociedad	17	7	3	7	+0	+5.2	24
13	Mallorca	17	6	6	5	-1	-0.4	24
14	Vallecano	17	6	6	5	-2	+5.1	24
15	Sevilla	17	5	6	6	-5	+0.9	21
16	Alaves	17	5	5	7	-4	+0.2	20
17	Getafe	17	4	7	6	-1	+3.3	19
18	Leganes	17	5	4	8	-8	-10.1	19
19	Las Palmas	18	4	5	9	-7	-7.2	17
20	Valladolid	17	3	4	10	-19	-10.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	3	2	+26	+11.5	39
2	Real Madrid	17	9	5	3	+13	+4.0	32
3	Villarreal	17	9	3	5	+2	+6.6	30
4	Ath Madrid	17	7	6	4	+9	+1.9	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	6	7	4	+3	+1.6	25
6	Betis	17	7	4	6	-1	-5.4	25
7	Vallecano	18	6	5	7	-3	-8.8	23
8	Getafe	18	6	2	10	-2	-10.9	20
9	Mallorca	17	6	2	9	-7	-2.7	20
10	Sociedad	17	5	4	8	-5	-3.7	19
11	Sevilla	18	4	5	9	-5	-5.7	17
12	Alaves	17	3	6	8	-7	-4.2	15
13	Las Palmas	17	4	3	10	-10	-22.1	15
14	Girona	17	3	5	9	-13	-10.3	14
15	Osasuna	17	2	8	7	-14	-12.6	14
16	Valencia	17	2	8	7	-15	-12.0	14
17	Celta	17	3	4	10	-11	+2.8	13
18	Leganes	17	1	9	7	-11	-16.5	12
19	Espanol	17	3	3	11	-11	-15.9	12
20	Valladolid	17	1	0	16	-39	-22.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.