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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Villarreal

T U S S T

3–2

Full-time

Sevilla

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Sevilla

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 32%

35%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

68%

50%

Both score Ø 69%

79%

59%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

3,33 xG 1,74

59% Possession 41%

25 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 1

6 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 9. · Sevilla 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	34	27	6	1	+52	+33.3	87
2	Girona	35	23	6	6	+31	+12.5	75
3	Barcelona	34	22	7	5	+27	+35.1	73
4	Ath Madrid	34	21	4	9	+24	+20.0	67
5	Ath Bilbao	34	17	10	7	+22	+10.7	61
6	Sociedad	34	14	12	8	+13	+7.4	54
7	Betis	34	13	13	8	+4	-5.1	52
8	Valencia	34	13	8	13	-2	-5.6	47
9	Villarreal	34	12	9	13	-2	-4.7	45
10	Getafe	34	10	13	11	-6	-4.8	43
11	Alaves	35	11	9	15	-6	+0.7	42
12	Sevilla	34	10	11	13	-1	-8.3	41
13	Osasuna	34	11	6	17	-14	-7.9	39
14	Las Palmas	35	10	7	18	-14	-22.7	37
15	Mallorca	35	7	14	14	-12	-6.7	35
16	Celta	34	8	10	16	-12	-3.4	34
17	Vallecano	34	7	13	14	-16	-3.2	34
18	Cadiz	34	4	14	16	-26	-16.6	26
19	Granada	34	4	9	21	-28	-17.4	21
20	Almeria	34	2	11	21	-34	-13.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	15	2	0	+34	+24.4	47
2	Ath Madrid	17	15	1	1	+22	+17.5	46
3	Girona	17	14	2	1	+27	+10.9	44
4	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+17	+19.6	40
5	Ath Bilbao	17	11	5	1	+22	+15.6	38
6	Betis	17	8	7	2	+9	+7.3	31
7	Valencia	17	8	5	4	+8	+3.7	29
8	Getafe	17	8	5	4	+2	+3.3	29
9	Alaves	18	8	4	6	+3	+6.5	28
10	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+7	+4.1	27
11	Mallorca	18	6	7	5	+1	-1.2	25
12	Sevilla	17	6	5	6	+2	-1.1	23
13	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+3	+5.5	22
14	Las Palmas	17	6	4	7	+0	-6.5	22
15	Osasuna	17	6	3	8	-7	+0.5	21
16	Celta	17	5	5	7	-3	+11.1	20
17	Cadiz	17	4	8	5	-4	+3.5	20
18	Granada	17	4	6	7	-3	-1.0	18
19	Vallecano	17	3	8	6	-8	-1.2	17
20	Almeria	17	0	8	9	-17	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+18	+8.9	40
2	Barcelona	17	9	6	2	+10	+15.4	33
3	Girona	18	9	4	5	+4	+1.6	31
4	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+6	+3.3	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	+0	-4.9	23
6	Villarreal	17	6	5	6	-5	-10.2	23
7	Ath Madrid	17	6	3	8	+2	+2.5	21
8	Betis	17	5	6	6	-5	-12.4	21
9	Sevilla	17	4	6	7	-3	-7.3	18
10	Osasuna	17	5	3	9	-7	-8.4	18
11	Valencia	17	5	3	9	-10	-9.3	18
12	Vallecano	17	4	5	8	-8	-2.0	17
13	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-14	-16.2	15
14	Getafe	17	2	8	7	-8	-8.1	14
15	Celta	17	3	5	9	-9	-14.4	14
16	Alaves	17	3	5	9	-9	-5.8	14
17	Mallorca	17	1	7	9	-13	-5.5	10
18	Almeria	17	2	3	12	-17	-13.4	9
19	Cadiz	17	0	6	11	-22	-20.0	6
20	Granada	17	0	3	14	-25	-16.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.