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La Liga
Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias
Sevilla
S T T S T
1–0
Full-time
Osasuna
S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Osasuna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,7
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 32%
36%
27%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
82%
27%
Both score Ø 55%
73%
36%
Average goals
3,3
1,9
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,7
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,70 xG 1,29
47% Possession 53%
10 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 6
6 Offside 0
21 Free kicks against 13
5 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sevilla 13. · Osasuna 15.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Real Madrid 11 10 0 1 +16 +14.8 30
2 Barcelona 11 8 1 2 +15 +7.6 25
3 Villarreal 11 7 2 2 +12 +5.6 23
4 Ath Madrid 11 6 4 1 +11 +8.9 22
5 Betis 11 5 4 2 +6 +5.9 19
6 Espanol 11 5 3 3 +2 +7.3 18
7 Getafe 11 5 2 4 -1 -3.4 17
8 Alaves 12 4 3 5 +0 +2.4 15
9 Elche 12 3 6 3 -1 -2.6 15
10 Vallecano 11 4 2 5 -2 -0.3 14
11 Ath Bilbao 11 4 2 5 -2 +3.8 14
12 Celta 11 2 7 2 -1 +0.0 13
13 Sevilla 11 4 1 6 -2 -10.7 13
14 Sociedad 12 3 4 5 -3 +0.9 13
15 Osasuna 11 3 2 6 -3 -2.6 11
16 Girona 12 2 4 6 -13 -9.5 10
17 Levante 11 2 3 6 -5 -1.3 9
18 Mallorca 11 2 3 6 -7 -10.4 9
19 Valencia 11 2 3 6 -10 -6.0 9
20 Oviedo 11 2 2 7 -12 -10.6 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sevilla Osasuna
José Ángel Carmona 🟨
20′
21′
🟨 Victor Muñoz
Djibril Sow 🟨
28′
Half-time 0–0
Tanguy Nianzou 🟨
46′
Juanlu Sánchez ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
49′
1–0 R. Vargas
51′
54′
🔁 A. Oroz
↦ K. Barja
61′
🟨 Jon Moncayola
N. Gudelj 🔁
↦ D. Sow
65′
70′
🔁 S. Becker
↦ R. Garcia
A. Gonzalez 🔁
↦ Peque
76′
81′
🔁 J. Herrando
↦ F. Boyomo
Gabriel Suazo 🟨
83′
M. Bueno 🔁
↦ J. Sanchez
86′
C. Ejuke 🔁
↦ R. Vargas
87′
Batista Mendy 🟨
92′
93′
🟨 Iker Muñoz
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sevilla

4-2-3-1
1 O. Vlachodimos G
2 J. A. Carmona D
5 T. Nianzou D
23 Marcao D
12 G. Suazo D
20 D. Sow M
19 B. Mendy M
16 J. Sanchez M
14 Peque M
11 R. Vargas M
9 A. Adams F
Bench (12)
31 A. Flores
13 O. Nyland
32 Castrin
36 Oso
22 R. Martinez
4 K. Salas
28 M. Bueno
6 N. Gudelj
24 A. Januzaj
8 Joan Jordan
21 C. Ejuke
17 A. Gonzalez

Coach: Matías Jesús Almeyda

Osasuna

4-2-3-1
1 S. Herrera G
7 J. Moncayola D
22 F. Boyomo D
24 A. Catena D
23 A. Bretones D
8 I. Munoz M
16 M. Gomez M
14 R. Garcia M
21 V. Munoz M
11 K. Barja M
9 R. Garcia F
Bench (7)
13 A. Fernandez
41 I. Arguibide
5 J. Herrando
3 J. Cruz
10 A. Oroz
29 A. Osambela
18 S. Becker

Coach: Alessio Lisci

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,16
U
3,21
B
3,52
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,22
U2,5 ✓
1,62
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.