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Championship

Referee: Sam Allison

Middlesbrough

S S U T U

2–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 49%

54%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

46%

43%

Both score Ø 41%

46%

36%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,61 xG 1,20

43% Possession 57%

8 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 4. · Birmingham 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	9	4	1	+26	+16.4	31
2	Stoke	14	8	3	3	+12	-0.3	27
3	Preston	15	7	5	3	+6	-0.5	26
4	Middlesbrough	13	7	4	2	+5	+3.1	25
5	Hull	15	7	4	4	+2	-7.8	25
6	Millwall	15	7	4	4	-3	+2.5	25
7	Charlton	14	6	5	3	+5	-0.4	23
8	Bristol City	15	6	5	4	+4	+0.4	23
9	Derby	15	6	5	4	+1	-5.6	23
10	Birmingham	14	6	3	5	+4	+8.8	21
11	Ipswich	13	5	5	3	+7	+10.7	20
12	Watford	15	5	5	5	+1	+2.4	20
13	Leicester	14	4	6	4	+1	-2.8	18
14	Wrexham	14	4	6	4	+0	-5.6	18
15	West Brom	14	5	3	6	-3	-0.5	18
16	QPR	14	5	3	6	-6	+0.8	18
17	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-1	-5.1	17
18	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	-5	+4.7	16
19	Southampton	13	3	5	5	-5	+3.0	14
20	Portsmouth	15	3	5	7	-8	-5.6	14
21	Oxford	14	3	4	7	-5	-3.0	13
22	Norwich	14	2	3	9	-8	-4.6	9
23	Sheffield United	14	3	0	11	-15	-1.2	9
24	Sheffield Weds	14	1	5	8	-15	-9.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	5	2	0	+15	+6.6	17
2	Watford	8	5	2	1	+6	+3.7	17
3	Preston	8	5	2	1	+5	-0.7	17
4	Hull	8	5	2	1	+3	-2.0	17
5	Ipswich	8	4	3	1	+6	+10.4	15
6	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+9	+9.4	14
7	Charlton	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.2	14
8	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+4	+0.4	14
9	Stoke	6	4	1	1	+7	+2.5	13
10	Millwall	8	4	1	3	-2	+1.8	13
11	Derby	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.3	12
12	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.3	11
13	Leicester	7	2	4	1	+1	+2.8	10
14	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.4	9
15	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
16	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.5	9
17	QPR	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.1	8
18	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-3	-0.3	8
19	Oxford	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.1	6
20	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-2	+4.8	5
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	+0.8	4
22	Sheffield United	6	1	0	5	-7	+0.6	3
23	Sheffield Weds	8	0	2	6	-15	-6.8	2
24	Norwich	6	0	0	6	-7	+0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	4	2	1	+11	+9.8	14
2	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+5	-2.8	14
3	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.6	12
4	Blackburn	7	4	0	3	+1	+3.9	12
5	Millwall	7	3	3	1	-1	+0.8	12
6	Derby	7	3	2	2	+1	-5.3	11
7	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+1	+2.7	11
8	QPR	7	3	1	3	-4	-2.3	10
9	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	+1	-5.5	9
10	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.2	9
11	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.6	9
12	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
13	Southampton	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.8	9
14	West Brom	8	3	0	5	-4	-2.9	9
15	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+0	-5.6	8
16	Swansea	7	2	2	3	+0	-3.7	8
17	Hull	7	2	2	3	-1	-5.8	8
18	Oxford	7	2	1	4	-1	-4.1	7
19	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.5	7
20	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	+0	-2.9	6
21	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-5	-5.3	6
22	Sheffield United	8	2	0	6	-8	-1.8	6
23	Ipswich	5	1	2	2	+1	+0.3	5
24	Watford	7	0	3	4	-5	-1.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.