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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Reichel

Hamburg

S T T S T

1–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

22%

67%

Points per game

0,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

56%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,57 xG 1,03

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 8

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 13. · Dortmund 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	9	0	0	+29	+19.4	27
2	RB Leipzig	9	7	1	1	+9	+4.2	22
3	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+9	+5.2	20
4	Stuttgart	9	6	0	3	+4	+3.4	18
5	Leverkusen	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.9	17
6	Hoffenheim	9	5	1	3	+3	+1.2	16
7	Werder Bremen	10	4	3	3	-3	-5.3	15
8	FC Koln	9	4	2	3	+4	-0.8	14
9	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.6	14
10	Union Berlin	9	3	2	4	-4	-4.8	11
11	Freiburg	9	2	4	3	-2	+0.4	10
12	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-6	-4.5	8
13	Hamburg	9	2	2	5	-7	-3.2	8
14	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-9	-8.4	7
15	St Pauli	9	2	1	6	-10	-4.8	7
16	M'gladbach	9	1	3	5	-8	-3.2	6
17	Mainz	9	1	2	6	-7	-2.1	5
18	Heidenheim	9	1	2	6	-9	-4.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+8.9	15
2	RB Leipzig	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.9	12
3	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+5	+1.3	12
4	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.5	10
5	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.0	10
6	Werder Bremen	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.6	10
7	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.7	8
8	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.5	7
9	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.9	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.9	6
11	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.3	5
12	Heidenheim	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.8	5
13	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.8	4
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
15	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2
17	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-9	-4.3	2
18	Mainz	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	5	4	1	0	+7	+2.2	13
2	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+10	+10.5	12
3	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.2	10
4	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.3	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.3	8
6	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	-1	-0.6	7
7	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.3	7
8	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.1	6
9	Wolfsburg	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
10	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.9	5
11	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-3	-7.0	5
12	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	+1	+1.2	4
13	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.3	4
14	Mainz	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.0	4
15	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.0	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
17	Hamburg	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.1	2
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.