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Championship

Referee: M Dwyer

Plymouth

U T U S U

3–1

Full-time

Cardiff

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,2

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

2,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 34%

26%

41%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

70%

52%

Both score Ø 56%

67%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,71 xG 1,25

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Plymouth 19. · Cardiff 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	27	21	2	4	+34	+23.0	65
2	Ipswich	27	17	7	3	+16	+13.0	58
3	Southampton	27	16	7	4	+20	+20.3	55
4	Leeds	26	14	6	6	+22	+22.5	48
5	West Brom	26	13	6	7	+16	+7.3	45
6	Hull	28	12	6	10	+4	+5.9	42
7	Coventry	27	10	10	7	+12	+6.5	40
8	Sunderland	28	12	4	12	+6	+11.9	40
9	Watford	27	10	9	8	+7	+2.9	39
10	Middlesbrough	27	12	3	12	+1	+13.1	39
11	Norwich	26	11	5	10	+2	-5.4	38
12	Preston	27	11	5	11	-11	-8.9	38
13	Cardiff	27	11	4	12	-2	-12.2	37
14	Bristol City	27	10	6	11	+0	+1.2	36
15	Swansea	28	8	9	11	-6	-11.7	33
16	Millwall	27	8	8	11	-5	-6.6	32
17	Stoke	27	8	8	11	-6	-2.4	32
18	Blackburn	27	10	2	15	-12	-4.1	32
19	Plymouth	27	7	9	11	-2	-12.5	30
20	Birmingham	27	7	8	12	-11	-4.1	29
21	Huddersfield	27	5	11	11	-18	-14.4	26
22	Sheffield Weds	27	6	4	17	-23	-6.4	22
23	QPR	27	5	6	16	-17	-9.6	21
24	Rotherham	27	3	9	15	-27	-29.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	13	11	0	2	+20	+13.0	33
2	Ipswich	14	10	3	1	+14	+14.0	33
3	Leeds	13	9	4	0	+19	+16.1	31
4	West Brom	14	9	3	2	+13	+9.3	30
5	Southampton	13	9	2	2	+18	+15.2	29
6	Coventry	14	6	7	1	+9	+6.0	25
7	Plymouth	13	7	3	3	+11	-2.7	24
8	Sunderland	14	8	0	6	+5	+8.7	24
9	Norwich	12	7	2	3	+6	+3.3	23
10	Preston	14	7	2	5	-4	-3.8	23
11	Hull	14	6	4	4	+7	+7.8	22
12	Birmingham	14	5	6	3	+3	-0.3	21
13	Watford	14	5	5	4	+7	+8.1	20
14	Bristol City	13	6	2	5	+2	+2.2	20
15	Cardiff	14	6	2	6	+0	-7.6	20
16	Middlesbrough	13	6	1	6	+0	+8.3	19
17	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-1	-1.5	17
18	Stoke	13	4	4	5	-3	+1.6	16
19	Blackburn	13	5	1	7	-5	+2.0	16
20	Rotherham	14	3	6	5	-2	-7.7	15
21	Sheffield Weds	13	4	3	6	-4	+0.6	15
22	Huddersfield	14	3	6	5	-6	-4.4	15
23	Millwall	14	4	3	7	-7	-2.2	15
24	QPR	13	2	3	8	-9	-2.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	14	10	2	2	+14	+10.0	32
2	Southampton	14	7	5	2	+2	+5.0	26
3	Ipswich	13	7	4	2	+2	-1.0	25
4	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+1	+4.8	20
5	Hull	14	6	2	6	-3	-1.9	20
6	Watford	13	5	4	4	+0	-5.1	19
7	Leeds	13	5	2	6	+3	+6.4	17
8	Millwall	13	4	5	4	+2	-4.4	17
9	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-2	-4.7	17
10	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	+3.2	16
11	Bristol City	14	4	4	6	-2	-1.0	16
12	Stoke	14	4	4	6	-3	-4.0	16
13	Swansea	14	4	4	6	-5	-10.2	16
14	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	-7	-6.1	16
15	Coventry	13	4	3	6	+3	+0.6	15
16	West Brom	12	4	3	5	+3	-2.0	15
17	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-4	-8.7	15
18	Preston	13	4	3	6	-7	-5.2	15
19	QPR	14	3	3	8	-8	-7.5	12
20	Huddersfield	13	2	5	6	-12	-10.0	11
21	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-14	-3.7	8
22	Sheffield Weds	14	2	1	11	-19	-6.9	7
23	Plymouth	14	0	6	8	-13	-9.8	6
24	Rotherham	13	0	3	10	-25	-21.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.