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Coupe de France
Referee: M Bollengier
Orleans
T T S S S
1–4
Full-time
Paris SG
U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Orleans Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,7
Scored
1,7
3,0
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coupe de France · 3/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
3,3
9,0
Scored
2,7
9,0
Conceded
0,7
0,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+9,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

25% Possession 75%
10 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 8
1 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 10
0 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 7
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Orleans 8. · Paris SG 56.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Laval 4 4 0 0 +11 12
2 Le Puy Foot 4 4 0 0 +7 12
3 Valenciennes 4 3 1 0 +5 10
4 Rodez 4 3 0 1 +14 9
5 Romorantin 3 3 0 0 +11 9
6 Bergerac 4 3 0 1 +6 9
7 Saint-Priest 3 3 0 0 +6 9
8 Orleans 3 3 0 0 +6 9
9 Sochaux 3 3 0 0 +6 9
10 Racing Colombes 92 3 3 0 0 +4 9
11 Rouen 3 3 0 0 +4 9
12 Feignies-Aulnoye 3 3 0 0 +3 9
13 Chateauroux 3 2 1 0 +5 7
14 Trélissac 4 2 1 1 +4 7
15 Entente S St Gratien 3 2 1 0 +3 7
16 Paris FC 4 2 1 1 +2 7
17 Les Herbiers 3 2 1 0 +2 7
18 Dunkerque 4 2 1 1 +1 7
19 Olympique d'Alès 3 2 0 1 +5 6
20 Chambly Thelle FC 3 2 0 1 +5 6
21 Caen 3 2 0 1 +5 6
22 Quevilly Rouen 3 2 0 1 +5 6
23 Thionville Lusitanos 3 2 0 1 +4 6
24 Lyon 2 2 0 0 +4 6
25 Lyon Duchere 3 2 0 1 +3 6
26 Sarreguemines 3 2 0 1 +3 6
27 Amiens 3 2 0 1 +3 6
28 Feurs 3 2 0 1 +2 6
29 Pau FC 3 2 0 1 +2 6
30 Libourne 3 2 0 1 +2 6
31 Nimes 3 2 0 1 +2 6
32 Angers 3 2 0 1 +2 6
33 Brest 2 2 0 0 +2 6
34 Dinan Léhon 3 2 0 1 +1 6
35 Dieppe 3 2 0 1 -1 6
36 Auxerre 3 1 2 0 +3 5
37 Bordeaux 4 1 2 1 +0 5
38 Monaco 2 1 1 0 +2 4
39 Cannes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
40 Nice 2 1 1 0 +1 4
41 Grenoble 2 1 1 0 +1 4
42 Union Cosnoise 2 1 1 0 +1 4
43 Epinal 2 1 1 0 +1 4
44 Mulhouse 2 1 1 0 +1 4
45 Paimpol 2 1 1 0 +1 4
46 Blagnac 2 1 1 0 +1 4
47 Fleury 91 2 1 1 0 +1 4
48 Sarre Union 2 1 1 0 +1 4
49 Avoine OCC 3 1 1 1 -1 4
50 Louhans-Cuiseaux 3 1 1 1 -1 4
51 Guingamp 3 1 1 1 -1 4
52 Chambéry 3 1 1 1 -2 4
53 Pontarlier 3 1 1 1 -2 4
54 Revel 3 1 1 1 -6 4
55 Lille 1 1 0 0 +12 3
56 Paris SG 1 1 0 0 +9 3
57 Dijon 2 1 0 1 +4 3
58 Vitré 2 1 0 1 +4 3
59 Strasbourg 1 1 0 0 +4 3
60 Toulouse 1 1 0 0 +3 3
61 Reims 1 1 0 0 +3 3
62 Métropole Troyenne 2 1 0 1 +2 3
63 Ajaccio 2 1 0 1 +2 3
64 Villers Houlgate CF 2 1 0 1 +2 3
65 Nantes 2 1 0 1 +2 3
66 St Etienne 2 1 0 1 +2 3
67 Rennes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
68 Martigues 2 1 0 1 +1 3
69 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 2 1 0 1 +1 3
70 Montpellier 1 1 0 0 +1 3
71 Le Havre 1 1 0 0 +1 3
72 Pontivy GSI 2 1 0 1 +1 3
73 Furiani-Agliani 2 1 0 1 +1 3
74 Marseille 1 1 0 0 +1 3
75 Entente Itancourt-Neu. 2 1 0 1 +0 3
76 Castanet 2 1 0 1 +0 3
77 Ergué-Gaberic 2 1 0 1 +0 3
78 Thaon 2 1 0 1 +0 3
79 Annecy 2 1 0 1 +0 3
80 Plessis Robinson 92 2 1 0 1 +0 3
81 AG Caennaise 2 1 0 1 +0 3
82 Angoulême 2 1 0 1 +0 3
83 Panazol 2 1 0 1 -1 3
84 Villenave 2 1 0 1 -1 3
85 Biesheim 2 1 0 1 -1 3
86 Hauts Lyonnais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
87 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 2 1 0 1 -1 3
88 RC Calais 2 1 0 1 -2 3
89 Saint-Meziery 2 1 0 1 -2 3
90 Coulaines 2 1 0 1 -3 3
91 JS Douvres 2 1 0 1 -3 3
92 Stade Mayennais 2 1 0 1 -8 3
93 Golden Lion 2 1 0 1 -11 3
94 Reims Sainte-Anne 2 0 2 0 +0 2
95 Saint-Omer 3 0 2 1 -1 2
96 Fabrègues 3 0 2 1 -3 2
97 Challans 3 0 2 1 -4 2
98 Concarneau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Lens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Saint-Malo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Villejuif 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Aubagne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Squadra Valincu ARR 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Nœux-les-Mines 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Étoile Maritime 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Metz 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Clermont 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Stade Plabennec 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Boulogne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Canet Roussillon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Limonest 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Le Pays du Valois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Hyères 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 Forbach 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 ASPTT Dijon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
116 Stade Briochin 2 0 1 1 -1 1
117 Thonon Évian 2 0 1 1 -1 1
118 Saint-Denis 2 0 1 1 -2 1
119 Domerat 2 0 1 1 -3 1
120 Chaponnay-Marennes 2 0 1 1 -3 1
121 Blériot-Plage 2 0 1 1 -3 1
122 Moulien 2 0 1 1 -4 1
123 Geispolsheim 2 0 1 1 -4 1
124 Croix Football IC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
125 Dives-Cabourg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
126 Schweighouse s/Moder 1 0 0 1 -1 0
127 Red Star 1 0 0 1 -1 0
128 Lorient 1 0 0 1 -1 0
129 Jura Sud Foot 1 0 0 1 -1 0
130 Mâcon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
131 Espaly-Saint-Marcel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
132 Roche Saint-Genest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Stade Pontivy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Avranches 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Troyes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Villefranche 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Cholet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Brissac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Fos 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Drapeau Fougères 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Bourgoin-Jallieu 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Longueau 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 France Aizenay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 Saumur 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Flers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 US Laon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Choisy au Bac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
149 Volvic 1 0 0 1 -1 0
150 APM Metz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
151 Chauray 1 0 0 1 -1 0
152 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
153 Vierzon FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
154 Chantilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
155 Bondues 1 0 0 1 -1 0
156 Pirae 1 0 0 1 -1 0
157 Bayonne 1 0 0 1 -1 0
158 Colmar 1 0 0 1 -1 0
159 Torcy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
160 Isle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
161 Morlaas Est-Bearn 1 0 0 1 -1 0
162 Aunis Avenir 1 0 0 1 -1 0
163 Jarville 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Velay 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Saint-Renan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 TA Rennes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Roannais Foot 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Haguenau 1 0 0 1 -2 0
169 Villerupt Thil 1 0 0 1 -2 0
170 Neuville 1 0 0 1 -2 0
171 Houilles 1 0 0 1 -2 0
172 Plougastel 1 0 0 1 -2 0
173 Noisy-le-Sec 1 0 0 1 -2 0
174 Le Poiré sur Vie 1 0 0 1 -2 0
175 Seyssins 1 0 0 1 -2 0
176 Saint-Michel 91 1 0 0 1 -2 0
177 Camon 1 0 0 1 -3 0
178 Bastia 1 0 0 1 -3 0
179 Le Geldar 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 Le Quesnoy 1 0 0 1 -3 0
181 Toulouse Métropole 1 0 0 1 -3 0
182 Poitiers 1 0 0 1 -3 0
183 Hombourg-Haut 1 0 0 1 -3 0
184 Loon-Plage 1 0 0 1 -3 0
185 Bourg-en-bresse 01 1 0 0 1 -3 0
186 Liffré 1 0 0 1 -3 0
187 St-Aubin Guérande 1 0 0 1 -3 0
188 Hienghène Sport 1 0 0 1 -4 0
189 Lavernose Lherm 1 0 0 1 -4 0
190 Montdidier 1 0 0 1 -4 0
191 Montlouis 1 0 0 1 -4 0
192 Auch 1 0 0 1 -4 0
193 FC Equeurdreville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
194 Rosador 1 0 0 1 -5 0
195 Provin 1 0 0 1 -5 0
196 Doullens 1 0 0 1 -6 0
197 Châteaugiron 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Orleans Paris SG
16′
K. Mbappé 0–1
R. Kolo Muani
39′
🟨 Lucas Beraldo
Half-time 0–2
63′
K. Mbappé 0–2
67′
🔁 W. Zaïre-Emery
↦ Vitinha
G. Berthier 🔁
↦ L. Goujon
70′
A. Luth 🔁
↦ A. Dabasse
70′
72′
Gonçalo Ramos 0–3
K. Mbappé
A. Niakaté 🔁
↦ R. Ponti
80′
80′
🔁 E. Mbappé
↦ Beraldo
81′
🔁 S. Mayulu
↦ Fabián Ruiz
1–3 N. Saint-Ruf
K. Fortuné
86′
88′
S. Mayulu 1–4
K. Mbappé
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Orleans

5-3-2
1 O. Matimbou G
7 J. Halby-Touré D
3 S. Solvet D
5 N. Saint-Ruf D
4 M. Jean-Pierre D
2 B. Agounon D
8 L. Goujon M
6 L. Bretelle M
11 R. Ponti M
10 A. Dabasse F
9 K. Fortuné F
Bench (9)
17 G. Berthier
19 A. Luth
15 A. Niakaté
18 J. Santini
13 M. Camara
14 Y. Soumaré
16 V. Viot
20 V. Thérésin
12 J. Akassou

Coach: K. Mokeddem

Paris SG

3-4-1-2
1 K. Navas G
5 Marquinhos D
2 Danilo Pereira D
3 Beraldo D
4 Carlos Soler M
6 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
10 R. Kolo Muani M
11 Marco Asensio F
9 Gonçalo Ramos F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
15 W. Zaïre-Emery
18 E. Mbappé
13 S. Mayulu
20 O. Dembélé
17 C. Ndour
12 L. Hernández
19 B. Barcola
16 Arnau Tenas
14 Y. Zague

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Bollengier · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.