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La Liga

Referee: J Guzman

Ath Bilbao

T T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Villarreal

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 49%

37%

60%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

47%

57%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

57%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,20 xG 1,29

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

15 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 11. · Villarreal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	26	1	4	+54	+39.6	79
2	Real Madrid	31	22	4	5	+36	+34.3	70
3	Villarreal	30	18	4	8	+19	+9.8	58
4	Ath Madrid	31	17	6	8	+19	+9.7	57
5	Betis	31	11	13	7	+7	+9.8	46
6	Celta	31	11	11	9	+4	+3.5	44
7	Sociedad	31	11	9	11	+1	-1.2	42
8	Getafe	30	12	5	13	-4	-7.6	41
9	Osasuna	31	10	9	12	-1	-3.9	39
10	Espanol	31	10	8	13	-11	-4.3	38
11	Ath Bilbao	30	11	5	14	-11	+9.0	38
12	Girona	31	9	11	11	-12	-11.4	38
13	Vallecano	31	8	11	12	-9	+3.6	35
14	Valencia	31	9	8	14	-12	+3.5	35
15	Mallorca	31	9	7	15	-9	-17.6	34
16	Sevilla	31	9	7	15	-12	-17.0	34
17	Alaves	31	8	9	14	-11	-4.0	33
18	Elche	31	7	11	13	-8	-20.6	32
19	Oviedo	31	6	9	16	-24	-19.7	27
20	Levante	30	6	8	16	-16	-15.6	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	16	0	0	+42	+26.6	48
2	Real Madrid	16	13	1	2	+24	+23.3	40
3	Ath Madrid	16	13	1	2	+21	+16.5	40
4	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
5	Osasuna	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.2	29
6	Elche	16	7	7	2	+9	-3.8	28
7	Sociedad	16	8	4	4	+8	+5.5	28
8	Mallorca	16	8	4	4	+7	+0.2	28
9	Betis	15	7	5	3	+10	+9.4	26
10	Ath Bilbao	15	8	2	5	+2	+11.5	26
11	Vallecano	15	5	8	2	+6	+10.2	23
12	Valencia	15	6	5	4	+3	+10.6	23
13	Girona	15	6	4	5	-4	-7.0	22
14	Getafe	15	6	3	6	+3	-2.5	21
15	Alaves	15	5	6	4	+1	+1.6	21
16	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
17	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-2	-3.9	19
18	Celta	16	4	5	7	-1	+4.7	17
19	Oviedo	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.1	17
20	Levante	15	3	5	7	-8	-6.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	1	4	+12	+13.0	31
2	Real Madrid	15	9	3	3	+12	+11.0	30
3	Celta	15	7	6	2	+5	-1.2	27
4	Villarreal	15	6	3	6	-2	+0.2	21
5	Betis	16	4	8	4	-3	+0.4	20
6	Getafe	15	6	2	7	-7	-5.1	20
7	Ath Madrid	15	4	5	6	-2	-6.8	17
8	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-8	-5.4	17
9	Girona	16	3	7	6	-8	-4.4	16
10	Sevilla	15	4	3	8	-10	-13.2	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.7	14
12	Levante	15	3	3	9	-8	-9.0	12
13	Alaves	16	3	3	10	-12	-5.6	12
14	Ath Bilbao	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.4	12
15	Valencia	16	3	3	10	-15	-7.1	12
16	Vallecano	16	3	3	10	-15	-6.6	12
17	Osasuna	16	2	4	10	-10	-11.1	10
18	Oviedo	16	2	4	10	-17	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	15	1	3	11	-16	-17.8	6
20	Elche	15	0	4	11	-17	-16.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.