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Bundesliga

Referee: I Simsek

Sturm Graz

U S S U S

0–0

Full-time

Hartberg

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Hartberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,2

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 44%

56%

32%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

44%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,42 xG 0,76

61% Possession 39%

24 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 1

11 Blocked shots 10

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sturm Graz 1. · Hartberg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	25	14	3	8	+12	+8.6	45
2	LASK	26	13	5	8	+4	+8.7	44
3	Salzburg	26	11	8	7	+15	+9.3	41
4	SK Rapid	25	11	6	8	+2	-3.8	39
5	Austria Vienna	25	12	3	10	-1	+0.7	39
6	Altach	26	9	9	8	+1	-5.3	36
7	Ried	26	10	5	11	-3	-3.0	35
8	Hartberg	25	8	10	7	+3	-7.7	34
9	Tirol	26	9	7	10	-7	+1.2	34
10	Grazer AK	26	7	8	11	-8	+1.1	29
11	Wolfsberger AC	26	7	7	12	-5	-12.4	28
12	BW Linz	26	6	3	17	-13	+2.5	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	13	7	5	1	+7	+0.8	26
2	LASK	13	8	2	3	+6	+6.7	26
3	Tirol	13	6	3	4	+2	+2.6	21
4	Ried	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
5	Grazer AK	13	5	5	3	+2	+3.2	20
6	SK Rapid	13	6	2	5	+2	-2.4	20
7	Salzburg	13	5	3	5	+6	+4.3	18
8	Wolfsberger AC	13	4	5	4	+2	-3.0	17
9	Sturm Graz	12	5	2	5	-2	+1.9	17
10	Austria Vienna	12	5	2	5	-4	+0.8	17
11	BW Linz	13	5	1	7	+2	+5.0	16
12	Hartberg	13	4	4	5	+0	-1.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	13	9	1	3	+14	+6.7	28
2	Salzburg	13	6	5	2	+9	+5.0	23
3	Austria Vienna	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.1	22
4	SK Rapid	12	5	4	3	+0	-1.4	19
5	Hartberg	12	4	6	2	+3	-6.0	18
6	LASK	13	5	3	5	-2	+2.1	18
7	Ried	13	4	2	7	-4	-4.1	14
8	Tirol	13	3	4	6	-9	-1.4	13
9	Wolfsberger AC	13	3	2	8	-7	-9.4	11
10	Altach	13	2	4	7	-6	-6.1	10
11	Grazer AK	13	2	3	8	-10	-2.1	9
12	BW Linz	13	1	2	10	-15	-2.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.