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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Chelsea

T T T T S

0–3

Full-time

Man City

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 51%

42%

60%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

60%

Both score Ø 58%

65%

50%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,14 xG 2,29

37% Possession 63%

12 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 12

6 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 6. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	32	21	7	4	+38	+31.6	70
2	Man City	30	18	7	5	+32	+22.2	61
3	Man United	31	15	10	6	+13	+14.8	55
4	Aston Villa	32	16	7	9	+5	-6.3	55
5	Liverpool	32	15	7	10	+10	+14.0	52
6	Chelsea	31	13	9	9	+15	+17.4	48
7	Brentford	32	13	8	11	+4	+8.3	47
8	Everton	32	13	8	11	+2	-9.2	47
9	Brighton	32	12	10	10	+6	+5.8	46
10	Sunderland	32	12	10	10	-3	-14.4	46
11	Bournemouth	32	10	15	7	-1	+2.4	45
12	Fulham	32	13	5	14	-3	-3.9	44
13	Crystal Palace	31	11	9	11	-1	+7.7	42
14	Newcastle	32	12	6	14	-2	+5.4	42
15	Leeds	31	7	12	12	-11	-1.6	33
16	Nott'm Forest	32	8	9	15	-12	-9.8	33
17	West Ham	32	8	8	16	-17	-12.2	32
18	Tottenham	32	7	9	16	-11	-14.4	30
19	Burnley	32	4	8	20	-30	-36.3	20
20	Wolves	32	3	8	21	-34	-21.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	12	2	2	+25	+18.6	38
2	Man City	15	11	3	1	+25	+14.4	36
3	Man United	15	10	3	2	+13	+13.9	33
4	Aston Villa	16	10	2	4	+8	+0.8	32
5	Liverpool	16	9	4	3	+12	+10.4	31
6	Sunderland	16	8	5	3	+9	-3.7	29
7	Fulham	16	9	2	5	+8	+1.9	29
8	Brentford	16	7	6	3	+9	+11.2	27
9	Brighton	16	7	6	3	+7	+5.6	27
10	Bournemouth	16	6	8	2	+6	+11.6	26
11	Newcastle	16	8	2	6	+3	+8.1	26
12	Chelsea	15	6	5	4	+6	+8.9	23
13	Leeds	16	6	5	5	+2	+6.6	23
14	Everton	16	6	4	6	+2	-0.8	22
15	Crystal Palace	16	4	7	5	-3	+9.3	19
16	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-6	-1.5	16
17	Nott'm Forest	16	3	6	7	-6	+1.1	15
18	Wolves	16	3	3	10	-14	-8.3	12
19	Burnley	16	2	5	9	-10	-14.1	11
20	Tottenham	16	2	4	10	-10	-4.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	9	5	2	+13	+13.0	32
2	Chelsea	16	7	4	5	+9	+8.6	25
3	Man City	15	7	4	4	+7	+7.8	25
4	Everton	16	7	4	5	+0	-8.3	25
5	Crystal Palace	15	7	2	6	+2	-1.6	23
6	Aston Villa	16	6	5	5	-3	-7.2	23
7	Man United	16	5	7	4	+0	+0.9	22
8	Liverpool	16	6	3	7	-2	+3.6	21
9	Tottenham	16	5	5	6	-1	-9.9	20
10	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-5	-2.9	20
11	Brighton	16	5	4	7	-1	+0.2	19
12	Bournemouth	16	4	7	5	-7	-9.2	19
13	Nott'm Forest	16	5	3	8	-6	-10.9	18
14	Sunderland	16	4	5	7	-12	-10.7	17
15	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-5	-2.8	16
16	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-11	-10.7	16
17	Fulham	16	4	3	9	-11	-5.9	15
18	Leeds	15	1	7	7	-13	-8.2	10
19	Burnley	16	2	3	11	-20	-22.2	9
20	Wolves	16	0	5	11	-20	-13.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.