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La Liga

Referee: Víctor García

Ath Bilbao

U S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Villarreal

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 16/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

44%

79%

Both score Ø 78%

69%

86%

Average goals

2,4

3,6

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,08 xG 0,53

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 4. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	2	3	+31	+17.4	38
2	Real Madrid	16	11	3	2	+21	+15.7	36
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	5	1	+18	+14.0	32
4	Ath Bilbao	16	8	5	3	+9	+6.9	29
5	Villarreal	14	7	5	2	+4	+7.5	26
6	Sociedad	16	7	3	6	+5	+4.2	24
7	Mallorca	17	7	3	7	-4	-1.0	24
8	Osasuna	15	6	5	4	-3	-5.7	23
9	Girona	16	6	4	6	-1	+3.9	22
10	Celta	16	6	3	7	-2	+4.3	21
11	Betis	16	5	6	5	-2	+5.6	21
12	Vallecano	15	5	4	6	-1	-1.2	19
13	Sevilla	15	5	4	6	-5	-2.2	19
14	Las Palmas	16	5	3	8	-5	-14.7	18
15	Leganes	16	3	6	7	-9	-13.1	15
16	Alaves	15	4	2	9	-9	-5.4	14
17	Getafe	15	2	7	6	-3	-0.5	13
18	Espanol	14	4	1	9	-12	-14.5	13
19	Valencia	14	2	4	8	-9	-8.3	10
20	Valladolid	16	2	3	11	-23	-12.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+13	+11.6	21
2	Ath Bilbao	9	5	3	1	+7	+3.8	18
3	Ath Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	+12.7	17
4	Celta	9	5	2	2	+6	+4.7	17
5	Osasuna	8	5	2	1	+5	+2.8	17
6	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+14	+11.1	15
7	Betis	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.9	15
8	Girona	8	4	1	3	+2	+5.1	13
9	Sevilla	8	4	1	3	-1	+2.2	13
10	Villarreal	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.0	12
11	Espanol	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.7	12
12	Mallorca	9	3	3	3	-3	-3.4	12
13	Getafe	8	2	5	1	+3	+5.5	11
14	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	Sociedad	8	3	1	4	+0	+3.4	10
16	Leganes	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.4	10
17	Las Palmas	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
18	Valencia	7	2	2	3	+1	-0.2	8
19	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.5	8
20	Valladolid	8	1	3	4	-7	-5.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+17	+6.4	23
2	Real Madrid	8	4	3	1	+8	+4.0	15
3	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.3	15
4	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+5	+0.8	14
5	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+2	+5.5	14
6	Mallorca	8	4	0	4	-1	+2.4	12
7	Ath Bilbao	7	3	2	2	+2	+3.0	11
8	Vallecano	8	3	2	3	+0	-4.8	11
9	Girona	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.3	9
10	Las Palmas	8	3	0	5	-4	-10.1	9
11	Sevilla	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.4	6
12	Betis	8	1	3	4	-6	-4.2	6
13	Osasuna	7	1	3	3	-8	-8.6	6
14	Leganes	8	0	5	3	-5	-10.7	5
15	Celta	7	1	1	5	-8	-0.4	4
16	Alaves	8	1	0	7	-9	-3.1	3
17	Valladolid	8	1	0	7	-16	-7.2	3
18	Getafe	7	0	2	5	-6	-6.0	2
19	Valencia	7	0	2	5	-10	-8.0	2
20	Espanol	7	0	1	6	-13	-12.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.