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Eredivisie

Referee: M Vos

Zwolle

U U U S T

2–2

Full-time

Excelsior

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zwolle Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 26%

28%

24%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

62%

59%

Both score Ø 66%

69%

62%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,66 xG 1,50

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Zwolle 13. · Excelsior 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	30	24	2	4	+44	+29.9	74
2	Feyenoord	29	16	6	7	+21	+25.6	54
3	Nijmegen	29	15	8	6	+24	+9.3	53
4	Twente	30	14	11	5	+19	+26.8	53
5	Ajax	29	12	12	5	+18	+7.9	48
6	AZ Alkmaar	29	13	6	10	+4	+18.0	45
7	Utrecht	29	12	7	10	+13	+2.4	43
8	Heerenveen	28	12	7	9	+6	+9.8	43
9	Groningen	29	12	6	11	+7	+12.3	42
10	Sparta Rotterdam	30	12	6	12	-14	-4.9	42
11	Go Ahead Eagles	30	8	12	10	+5	-17.1	36
12	For Sittard	30	10	6	14	-11	-14.0	36
13	Zwolle	29	8	9	12	-20	-17.7	33
14	Volendam	30	7	7	16	-19	-24.2	28
15	Telstar	30	6	9	15	-13	-12.1	27
16	Excelsior	29	7	6	16	-20	-16.5	27
17	NAC Breda	30	5	10	15	-21	-9.5	25
18	Heracles	30	5	4	21	-43	-26.2	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	2	2	+23	+17.4	35
2	Feyenoord	15	10	2	3	+14	+18.6	32
3	Twente	15	8	4	3	+9	+15.8	28
4	Nijmegen	14	8	3	3	+15	+9.6	27
5	Ajax	14	8	3	3	+14	+13.4	27
6	Utrecht	14	8	2	4	+14	+7.3	26
7	AZ Alkmaar	14	7	5	2	+10	+13.2	26
8	Heerenveen	15	7	5	3	+8	+11.6	26
9	Go Ahead Eagles	15	6	6	3	+13	+2.9	24
10	Zwolle	14	7	3	4	+1	-0.4	24
11	Volendam	15	6	5	4	+4	-3.3	23
12	Groningen	15	6	4	5	+9	+7.5	22
13	For Sittard	15	6	4	5	-1	-0.0	22
14	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	4	5	-5	+0.4	22
15	NAC Breda	15	4	5	6	-3	+2.6	17
16	Heracles	15	4	3	8	-10	-6.3	15
17	Telstar	15	3	5	7	-3	-1.5	14
18	Excelsior	15	4	2	9	-7	-4.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	13	0	2	+21	+12.5	39
2	Nijmegen	15	7	5	3	+9	-0.3	26
3	Twente	15	6	7	2	+10	+11.0	25
4	Feyenoord	14	6	4	4	+7	+7.1	22
5	Ajax	15	4	9	2	+4	-5.5	21
6	Groningen	14	6	2	6	-2	+4.8	20
7	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	2	7	-9	-5.3	20
8	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	1	8	-6	+4.8	19
9	Utrecht	15	4	5	6	-1	-4.9	17
10	Heerenveen	13	5	2	6	-2	-1.7	17
11	For Sittard	15	4	2	9	-10	-14.0	14
12	Telstar	15	3	4	8	-10	-10.6	13
13	Excelsior	14	3	4	7	-13	-11.7	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	15	2	6	7	-8	-20.0	12
15	Zwolle	15	1	6	8	-21	-17.3	9
16	NAC Breda	15	1	5	9	-18	-12.1	8
17	Volendam	15	1	2	12	-23	-20.8	5
18	Heracles	15	1	1	13	-33	-19.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.