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Serie B

Referee: J L Sacchi

Spezia

S T U T T

0–2

Full-time

Mantova

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Mantova

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 26%

21%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

42%

52%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,41 xG 1,00

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 0

1 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 19. · Mantova 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	34	21	9	4	+39	+30.9	72
2	Frosinone	34	19	12	3	+32	+9.9	69
3	Monza	34	20	9	5	+26	+15.9	69
4	Palermo	34	18	11	5	+27	+11.0	65
5	Catanzaro	33	14	12	7	+11	-0.1	54
6	Modena	33	14	9	10	+15	+7.1	51
7	Juve Stabia	34	11	15	8	+0	-0.2	48
8	Cesena	34	12	8	14	-8	+4.2	44
9	Carrarese	33	10	12	11	+1	-5.7	42
10	Sudtirol	34	8	16	10	-1	-2.4	40
11	Sampdoria	34	10	10	14	-10	-1.5	40
12	Avellino	34	10	10	14	-16	-14.1	40
13	Mantova	33	10	7	16	-11	+1.4	37
14	Padova	34	9	10	15	-12	-12.1	37
15	Empoli	34	8	12	14	-6	+3.5	36
16	Virtus Entella	34	8	11	15	-15	-9.7	35
17	Bari	34	8	10	16	-20	-19.8	34
18	Pescara	34	7	11	16	-14	-3.4	32
19	Spezia	33	7	9	17	-17	-5.1	30
20	Reggiana	33	7	9	17	-21	-9.9	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	17	15	0	2	+28	+18.5	45
2	Monza	17	13	3	1	+21	+12.6	42
3	Palermo	17	12	4	1	+23	+8.7	40
4	Frosinone	17	10	5	2	+19	+8.4	35
5	Juve Stabia	17	8	8	1	+11	+5.4	32
6	Catanzaro	16	8	7	1	+10	+2.6	31
7	Sampdoria	17	8	5	4	+4	+3.3	29
8	Modena	17	8	4	5	+11	+1.3	28
9	Virtus Entella	17	7	7	3	+7	-1.4	28
10	Carrarese	17	7	6	4	+9	+4.3	27
11	Mantova	17	8	3	6	+0	+4.5	27
12	Avellino	17	7	5	5	-2	-4.7	26
13	Cesena	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.4	23
14	Bari	17	6	5	6	-1	-7.2	23
15	Empoli	17	4	10	3	+6	+8.0	22
16	Sudtirol	17	5	6	6	+1	-2.3	21
17	Pescara	17	5	5	7	+2	-1.4	20
18	Padova	17	4	7	6	-3	-5.2	19
19	Reggiana	16	4	6	6	-5	-4.3	18
20	Spezia	16	4	5	7	-6	-0.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	17	9	7	1	+13	+1.5	34
2	Venezia	17	6	9	2	+11	+12.4	27
3	Monza	17	7	6	4	+5	+3.3	27
4	Palermo	17	6	7	4	+4	+2.4	25
5	Modena	16	6	5	5	+4	+5.8	23
6	Catanzaro	17	6	5	6	+1	-2.7	23
7	Cesena	17	6	3	8	-8	-1.2	21
8	Sudtirol	17	3	10	4	-2	-0.1	19
9	Padova	17	5	3	9	-9	-6.9	18
10	Juve Stabia	17	3	7	7	-11	-5.6	16
11	Carrarese	16	3	6	7	-8	-9.9	15
12	Empoli	17	4	2	11	-12	-4.5	14
13	Avellino	17	3	5	9	-14	-9.4	14
14	Spezia	17	3	4	10	-11	-4.5	13
15	Pescara	17	2	6	9	-16	-2.0	12
16	Reggiana	17	3	3	11	-16	-5.7	12
17	Sampdoria	17	2	5	10	-14	-4.7	11
18	Bari	17	2	5	10	-19	-12.6	11
19	Mantova	16	2	4	10	-11	-3.1	10
20	Virtus Entella	17	1	4	12	-22	-8.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.