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La Liga

Referee: A Quintero

Villarreal

U S T S U

2–1

Full-time

Celta

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 47%

59%

34%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

63%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,72 xG 2,08

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 3. · Celta 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	28	1	4	+57	+40.7	85
2	Real Madrid	33	23	5	5	+37	+34.3	74
3	Villarreal	32	19	5	8	+20	+10.5	62
4	Ath Madrid	33	18	6	9	+19	+9.2	60
5	Betis	33	12	14	7	+8	+9.4	50
6	Celta	32	11	11	10	+3	+3.7	44
7	Getafe	33	13	5	15	-6	-13.2	44
8	Sociedad	33	11	10	12	+0	+0.4	43
9	Osasuna	33	11	9	13	-1	-2.2	42
10	Ath Bilbao	33	12	5	16	-12	+7.0	41
11	Vallecano	33	9	12	12	-8	+3.4	39
12	Valencia	33	10	9	14	-11	+3.2	39
13	Elche	33	9	11	13	-6	-19.4	38
14	Espanol	32	10	8	14	-12	-3.9	38
15	Girona	33	9	11	13	-14	-10.9	38
16	Alaves	33	9	9	15	-11	-2.9	36
17	Mallorca	33	9	8	16	-10	-18.5	35
18	Sevilla	33	9	7	17	-15	-19.3	34
19	Levante	32	8	8	16	-13	-11.7	32
20	Oviedo	33	6	10	17	-25	-19.7	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	17	0	0	+43	+26.4	51
2	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
3	Ath Madrid	17	14	1	2	+22	+17.8	43
4	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
5	Osasuna	16	9	5	2	+10	+8.2	32
6	Elche	17	8	7	2	+10	-2.0	31
7	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+7	+0.3	29
8	Ath Bilbao	17	9	2	6	+2	+10.7	29
9	Sociedad	17	8	4	5	+7	+7.2	28
10	Betis	16	7	6	3	+10	+9.3	27
11	Vallecano	17	6	9	2	+7	+9.9	27
12	Valencia	16	7	5	4	+4	+10.4	26
13	Alaves	16	6	6	4	+2	+2.6	24
14	Girona	16	6	4	6	-5	-6.7	22
15	Getafe	16	6	3	7	+1	-3.8	21
16	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
17	Levante	17	5	5	7	-5	-2.6	20
18	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-2	-3.9	19
19	Oviedo	17	4	6	7	-8	-9.1	18
20	Celta	16	4	5	7	-1	+4.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	1	4	+14	+14.3	34
2	Real Madrid	16	9	4	3	+12	+11.1	31
3	Celta	16	7	6	3	+4	-1.0	27
4	Villarreal	17	7	4	6	-1	+0.9	25
5	Betis	17	5	8	4	-2	+0.1	23
6	Getafe	17	7	2	8	-7	-9.5	23
7	Ath Madrid	16	4	5	7	-3	-8.6	17
8	Espanol	17	4	5	8	-9	-5.1	17
9	Girona	17	3	7	7	-9	-4.2	16
10	Sociedad	16	3	6	7	-7	-6.8	15
11	Sevilla	17	4	3	10	-13	-15.4	15
12	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-15	-7.2	13
13	Levante	15	3	3	9	-8	-9.0	12
14	Alaves	17	3	3	11	-13	-5.5	12
15	Ath Bilbao	16	3	3	10	-14	-3.7	12
16	Vallecano	16	3	3	10	-15	-6.6	12
17	Osasuna	17	2	4	11	-11	-10.4	10
18	Oviedo	16	2	4	10	-17	-10.5	10
19	Elche	16	1	4	11	-16	-17.4	7
20	Mallorca	16	1	3	12	-17	-18.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.