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Bundesliga
Referee: J Spurny
Sturm Graz
S U S U T
3–2
Full-time
Tirol
U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Tirol
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 44%
48%
39%
Points per game
1,7
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
57%
48%
Both score Ø 55%
52%
57%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

48% Possession 52%
19 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 5
2 Offside 2
19 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 4. · Tirol 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 23 18 1 4 +45 55
2 SK Rapid 23 14 6 3 +25 48
3 LASK 23 13 3 7 +19 42
4 Sturm Graz 23 11 6 6 +12 39
5 Tirol 23 9 6 8 +5 33
6 Wolfsberger AC 23 10 3 10 -6 33
7 Hartberg 24 8 8 8 -13 32
8 Austria Vienna 24 7 7 10 +0 28
9 Altach 24 7 3 14 -24 24
10 Ried 24 6 4 14 -22 22
11 St. Polten 24 5 6 13 -12 21
12 Admira 24 4 5 15 -29 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Mar -21 Tirol – Sturm Graz 1–1 28. Nov -20 Sturm Graz – Tirol 1–0 30. Nov -19 Tirol – Sturm Graz 1–5 25. Aug -19 Sturm Graz – Tirol 2–0

Match report

Sturm Graz Tirol
15′
⚽ N. Frederiksen 0–1
1–1 J. Jantscher ⚽
J. Stankovič
17′
2–1 J. Jantscher ⚽
23′
3–1 S. Hierländer ⚽
J. Jantscher
33′
Half-time 3–1
I. Ljubic 🔁
↦ S. Hierländer
64′
64′
🔁 R. Smith
↦ J. Naschberger
64′
🔁 F. Rieder
↦ Ž. Rogelj
65′
🔁 F. Buchacher
↦ D. Schnegg
Jon Gorenc Stanković 🟨
67′
Lukas Jäger 🟨
68′
71′
⚽ N. Frederiksen 3–2
F. Rieder
76′
🔁 B. Pranter
↦ T. Anselm
K. Friesenbichler 🔁
↦ K. Yeboah
78′
79′
🟨 Raffael Behounek
83′
🟨 Florian Buchacher
P. Huspek 🔁
↦ A. Kuen
85′
J. Gazibegović 🔁
↦ J. Jantscher
85′
Lukas Jäger 🟨
90′
Lukas Jäger 🟥
90′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
27 J. Siebenhandl G
4 J. Stankovič M
5 G. Wüthrich D
6 D. Nemeth D
44 A. Dante D
13 J. Jantscher F
25 S. Hierländer M
17 L. Jäger D
19 A. Kuen M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
23 K. Yeboah F
Bench (7)
30 I. Ljubic
20 K. Friesenbichler
18 P. Huspek
11 J. Gazibegović
9 B. Balaj
32 T. Schützenauer
35 N. Geyrhofer

Coach: C. Ilzer

Tirol

4-4-2
25 F. Oswald G
24 F. Koch D
4 D. Gugganig D
30 R. Behounek D
43 N. Celic M
28 D. Schnegg D
17 J. Naschberger M
21 Ž. Rogelj M
22 Z. Dedič F
20 T. Anselm M
9 N. Frederiksen F
Bench (7)
8 R. Smith
16 F. Rieder
26 F. Buchacher
7 B. Pranter
34 S. Hager
13 B. Ozegovic
10 F. Toplitsch

Coach: T. Silberberger

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Spurny · 59 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.