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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Genoa

U U U T U

0–3

Full-time

Milan

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 39%

71%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

64%

57%

Both score Ø 68%

64%

71%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 18. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	11	2	1	+23	35
2	Inter	15	10	4	1	+21	34
3	Milan	14	10	2	2	+12	32
4	Atalanta	15	9	4	2	+15	31
5	Roma	15	8	1	6	+8	25
6	Fiorentina	15	8	0	7	+4	24
7	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+4	24
8	Bologna	15	7	3	5	-3	24
9	Lazio	14	6	3	5	+0	21
10	Verona	15	5	5	5	+3	20
11	Empoli	14	6	1	7	-5	19
12	Sassuolo	14	5	3	6	+1	18
13	Torino	14	5	2	7	+3	17
14	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-4	15
15	Sampdoria	15	4	3	8	-8	15
16	Venezia	15	4	3	8	-13	15
17	Spezia	15	3	2	10	-19	11
18	Genoa	14	1	7	6	-9	10
19	Cagliari	15	1	6	8	-13	9
20	Salernitana	15	2	2	11	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Inter	7	5	2	0	+14	17
3	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Verona	8	5	1	2	+7	16
5	Milan	7	5	1	1	+7	16
6	Roma	7	5	1	1	+6	16
7	Bologna	8	5	1	2	+5	16
8	Fiorentina	7	5	0	2	+7	15
9	Torino	7	4	1	2	+7	13
10	Atalanta	8	3	3	2	+6	12
11	Juventus	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	Udinese	8	2	4	2	-1	10
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	+0	8
14	Sampdoria	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Spezia	7	2	1	4	-2	7
16	Venezia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-8	7
18	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-3	6
19	Salernitana	8	1	1	6	-11	4
20	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Inter	8	5	2	1	+7	17
3	Napoli	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Milan	7	5	1	1	+5	16
5	Juventus	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Empoli	6	4	0	2	+3	12
7	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Roma	8	3	0	5	+2	9
9	Fiorentina	8	3	0	5	-3	9
10	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-8	8
11	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-11	8
12	Sampdoria	7	2	1	4	-3	7
13	Genoa	8	1	4	3	-5	7
14	Udinese	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Lazio	7	1	2	4	-10	5
16	Verona	7	0	4	3	-4	4
17	Torino	7	1	1	5	-4	4
18	Salernitana	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Spezia	8	1	1	6	-17	4
20	Cagliari	7	0	3	4	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.