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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Roma

T S T U S

1–2

Full-time

Milan

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 75%

60%

90%

Points per game

1,9

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

24 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 5

19 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 4. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+20	31
2	Milan	10	9	1	0	+14	28
3	Inter	11	7	3	1	+16	24
4	Roma	10	6	1	3	+8	19
5	Atalanta	11	5	4	2	+6	19
6	Lazio	11	5	3	3	+3	18
7	Fiorentina	11	6	0	5	+3	18
8	Verona	11	4	3	4	+4	15
9	Juventus	11	4	3	4	+0	15
10	Empoli	11	5	0	6	-5	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	+4	14
12	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	+0	14
13	Bologna	10	3	3	4	-7	12
14	Udinese	11	2	5	4	-4	11
15	Sampdoria	11	2	3	6	-9	9
16	Venezia	11	2	3	6	-9	9
17	Genoa	11	1	5	5	-7	8
18	Spezia	11	2	2	7	-14	8
19	Salernitana	11	2	1	8	-13	7
20	Cagliari	10	1	3	6	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+9	15
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Roma	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	Verona	6	4	0	2	+6	12
6	Inter	5	3	2	0	+11	11
7	Torino	6	3	1	2	+6	10
8	Bologna	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Fiorentina	5	3	0	2	+4	9
10	Juventus	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	+0	7
12	Atalanta	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Udinese	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Sampdoria	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Venezia	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Spezia	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Salernitana	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-2	3
20	Empoli	6	1	0	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Inter	6	4	1	1	+5	13
4	Milan	5	4	1	0	+5	13
5	Empoli	5	4	0	1	+4	12
6	Fiorentina	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Juventus	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Roma	5	2	0	3	+2	6
10	Udinese	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-6	5
13	Venezia	7	1	2	4	-8	5
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Spezia	6	1	1	4	-12	4
17	Verona	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Salernitana	5	1	0	4	-6	3
19	Bologna	5	0	2	3	-10	2
20	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.