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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Empoli

S U S S U

2–4

Full-time

Milan

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 56%

44%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 64%

67%

61%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Empoli 9. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	4	1	+34	46
2	Napoli	18	12	3	3	+22	39
3	Milan	18	12	3	3	+16	39
4	Atalanta	19	11	5	3	+14	38
5	Juventus	19	10	4	5	+10	34
6	Roma	19	10	2	7	+10	32
7	Fiorentina	19	10	2	7	+9	32
8	Lazio	19	9	4	6	+5	31
9	Empoli	18	8	3	7	-2	27
10	Bologna	19	8	3	8	-4	27
11	Torino	19	7	4	8	+4	25
12	Verona	19	6	6	7	+2	24
13	Sassuolo	19	6	6	7	-1	24
14	Udinese	18	4	8	6	-2	20
15	Sampdoria	19	5	5	9	-8	20
16	Venezia	19	4	5	10	-16	17
17	Spezia	18	3	4	11	-21	13
18	Genoa	19	1	8	10	-18	11
19	Cagliari	19	1	7	11	-23	10
20	Salernitana	18	2	2	14	-31	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	2	0	+19	23
2	Lazio	9	6	2	1	+12	20
3	Torino	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Roma	10	6	2	2	+5	20
5	Fiorentina	9	6	1	2	+11	19
6	Napoli	9	6	1	2	+11	19
7	Milan	9	6	1	2	+8	19
8	Verona	10	5	2	3	+6	17
9	Juventus	9	5	1	3	+4	16
10	Bologna	10	5	1	4	+2	16
11	Atalanta	9	3	3	3	+3	12
12	Sassuolo	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Udinese	9	2	5	2	-1	11
14	Empoli	9	3	1	5	-6	10
15	Spezia	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Sampdoria	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-5	8
18	Cagliari	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Genoa	9	0	4	5	-9	4
20	Salernitana	9	1	1	7	-16	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	10	8	2	0	+11	26
2	Inter	10	7	2	1	+15	23
3	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+11	20
4	Milan	9	6	2	1	+8	20
5	Juventus	10	5	3	2	+6	18
6	Empoli	9	5	2	2	+4	17
7	Fiorentina	10	4	1	5	-2	13
8	Roma	9	4	0	5	+5	12
9	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Sampdoria	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Bologna	9	3	2	4	-6	11
12	Lazio	10	3	2	5	-7	11
13	Udinese	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	Venezia	10	2	3	5	-11	9
15	Verona	9	1	4	4	-4	7
16	Genoa	10	1	4	5	-9	7
17	Torino	9	1	2	6	-5	5
18	Salernitana	9	1	1	7	-15	4
19	Spezia	9	1	1	7	-19	4
20	Cagliari	9	0	3	6	-16	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.