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Serie A

Referee: S Sozza

Inter

U U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Roma

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 32/33 matches

Win Ø 58%

63%

52%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

52%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

52%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 2. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	33	21	8	4	+29	71
2	Inter	32	20	9	3	+43	69
3	Napoli	33	20	7	6	+32	67
4	Juventus	33	18	9	6	+21	63
5	Roma	33	17	7	9	+17	58
6	Lazio	33	16	8	9	+17	56
7	Fiorentina	32	17	5	10	+13	56
8	Atalanta	33	15	9	9	+18	54
9	Verona	33	13	9	11	+8	48
10	Sassuolo	33	12	10	11	+5	46
11	Torino	33	11	10	12	+6	43
12	Udinese	32	9	12	11	-3	39
13	Bologna	32	10	8	14	-10	38
14	Empoli	33	8	10	15	-18	34
15	Spezia	34	9	6	19	-25	33
16	Sampdoria	33	8	5	20	-16	29
17	Cagliari	33	6	10	17	-30	28
18	Genoa	33	2	16	15	-30	22
19	Venezia	33	5	7	21	-34	22
20	Salernitana	32	5	7	20	-43	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	11	3	2	+25	36
2	Fiorentina	16	11	2	3	+18	35
3	Milan	17	10	4	3	+13	34
4	Roma	17	10	4	3	+10	34
5	Lazio	16	9	5	2	+16	32
6	Juventus	17	9	4	4	+10	31
7	Napoli	17	9	3	5	+13	30
8	Verona	16	9	2	5	+12	29
9	Torino	17	8	5	4	+12	29
10	Udinese	17	6	7	4	+4	25
11	Bologna	16	7	3	6	+2	24
12	Sassuolo	16	6	5	5	+1	23
13	Atalanta	16	4	6	6	+3	18
14	Spezia	16	5	3	8	-3	18
15	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-7	15
16	Cagliari	17	3	6	8	-10	15
17	Empoli	16	3	4	9	-15	13
18	Genoa	16	1	8	7	-12	11
19	Venezia	17	2	4	11	-18	10
20	Salernitana	15	1	5	9	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	16	11	4	1	+19	37
2	Milan	16	11	4	1	+16	37
3	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+15	36
4	Inter	16	9	6	1	+18	33
5	Juventus	16	9	5	2	+11	32
6	Roma	16	7	3	6	+7	24
7	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+1	24
8	Sassuolo	17	6	5	6	+4	23
9	Empoli	17	5	6	6	-3	21
10	Fiorentina	16	6	3	7	-5	21
11	Verona	17	4	7	6	-4	19
12	Spezia	18	4	3	11	-22	15
13	Torino	16	3	5	8	-6	14
14	Udinese	15	3	5	7	-7	14
15	Sampdoria	16	4	2	10	-9	14
16	Bologna	16	3	5	8	-12	14
17	Salernitana	17	4	2	11	-23	14
18	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-20	13
19	Venezia	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Genoa	17	1	8	8	-18	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.