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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

RB Leipzig

S U S S S

1–2

Full-time

Union Berlin

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 48%

53%

43%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

53%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

53%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

5 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 5

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 3. · Union Berlin 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	23	3	4	+60	72
2	Dortmund	30	20	3	7	+33	63
3	RB Leipzig	30	16	6	8	+34	54
4	Leverkusen	30	15	7	8	+25	52
5	Freiburg	30	14	9	7	+15	51
6	Union Berlin	30	13	8	9	+1	47
7	FC Koln	30	12	10	8	+0	46
8	Hoffenheim	30	13	6	11	+5	45
9	Mainz	31	11	6	14	+2	39
10	Ein Frankfurt	30	10	9	11	-2	39
11	Wolfsburg	31	11	4	16	-12	37
12	M'gladbach	30	10	7	13	-13	37
13	Bochum	30	10	6	14	-13	36
14	Augsburg	30	8	8	14	-13	32
15	Hertha	30	8	5	17	-34	29
16	Stuttgart	30	6	10	14	-17	28
17	Bielefeld	30	5	11	14	-23	26
18	Greuther Furth	30	3	8	19	-48	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	1	2	+31	37
2	Dortmund	15	12	0	3	+24	36
3	RB Leipzig	15	10	2	3	+23	32
4	Mainz	15	9	4	2	+20	31
5	Union Berlin	15	9	4	2	+7	31
6	Hoffenheim	15	8	4	3	+13	28
7	Freiburg	15	8	4	3	+10	28
8	FC Koln	15	8	4	3	+5	28
9	Leverkusen	15	8	2	5	+13	26
10	Bochum	15	7	4	4	+5	25
11	Wolfsburg	16	7	2	7	+4	23
12	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	+1	22
13	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+0	22
14	Stuttgart	15	5	3	7	-5	18
15	Hertha	15	5	3	7	-10	18
16	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	5	6	-2	17
17	Bielefeld	15	2	8	5	-8	14
18	Greuther Furth	15	3	5	7	-13	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	2	2	+29	35
2	Dortmund	15	8	3	4	+9	27
3	Leverkusen	15	7	5	3	+12	26
4	Freiburg	15	6	5	4	+5	23
5	RB Leipzig	15	6	4	5	+11	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+0	22
7	FC Koln	15	4	6	5	-5	18
8	Hoffenheim	15	5	2	8	-8	17
9	Union Berlin	15	4	4	7	-6	16
10	M'gladbach	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	Wolfsburg	15	4	2	9	-16	14
12	Bielefeld	15	3	3	9	-15	12
13	Bochum	15	3	2	10	-18	11
14	Hertha	15	3	2	10	-24	11
15	Stuttgart	15	1	7	7	-12	10
16	Augsburg	15	2	4	9	-14	10
17	Mainz	16	2	2	12	-18	8
18	Greuther Furth	15	0	3	12	-35	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.