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Championship

Referee: T Bramall

Derby

U S T S T

1–3

Full-time

Bristol City

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 61%

51%

71%

Average goals

2,1

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

67% Possession 33%

11 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 17. · Bristol City 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	44	28	8	8	+63	92
2	Bournemouth	43	22	13	8	+30	79
3	Huddersfield	43	21	13	9	+17	76
4	Luton	44	21	12	11	+19	75
5	Nott'm Forest	40	21	8	11	+29	71
6	Sheffield United	43	20	10	13	+17	70
7	Middlesbrough	44	20	9	15	+14	69
8	Coventry	45	19	11	15	+8	68
9	Blackburn	45	18	12	15	+11	66
10	West Brom	45	18	12	15	+6	66
11	Millwall	44	17	14	13	+5	65
12	Swansea	44	18	11	15	-1	65
13	Preston	45	16	16	13	-4	64
14	QPR	45	18	9	18	+0	63
15	Stoke	45	17	11	17	+8	62
16	Blackpool	44	16	12	16	+3	60
17	Derby	45	14	13	18	-7	55
18	Cardiff	44	15	8	21	-12	53
19	Bristol City	45	14	11	20	-19	53
20	Reading	45	14	9	22	-26	51
21	Hull	45	14	8	23	-9	50
22	Birmingham	45	11	13	21	-27	46
23	Peterborough	43	8	10	25	-45	34
24	Peterboro	44	8	10	26	-46	34
25	Barnsley	45	6	13	26	-34	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	22	14	4	4	+31	46
2	Blackburn	23	13	5	5	+17	44
3	West Brom	22	12	7	3	+16	43
4	Derby	22	12	7	3	+12	43
5	Nott'm Forest	22	13	3	6	+19	42
6	Luton	22	12	6	4	+17	42
7	Huddersfield	21	12	6	3	+13	42
8	Millwall	22	12	6	4	+13	42
9	Middlesbrough	22	13	2	7	+11	41
10	Sheffield United	21	12	4	5	+22	40
11	Bournemouth	21	11	7	3	+18	40
12	Blackpool	23	12	3	8	+7	39
13	Coventry	23	11	5	7	+10	38
14	Preston	22	9	10	3	+6	37
15	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+7	36
16	QPR	23	10	6	7	+5	36
17	Stoke	22	10	4	8	+8	34
18	Bristol City	23	7	9	7	-1	30
19	Reading	23	8	5	10	-8	29
20	Cardiff	23	8	3	12	-3	27
21	Birmingham	22	7	6	9	-5	27
22	Barnsley	22	5	7	10	-9	22
23	Peterborough	21	5	7	9	-10	22
24	Peterboro	22	5	7	10	-11	22
25	Hull	22	6	3	13	-10	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	22	14	4	4	+32	46
2	Bournemouth	22	11	6	5	+12	39
3	Huddersfield	22	9	7	6	+4	34
4	Luton	22	9	6	7	+2	33
5	Coventry	22	8	6	8	-2	30
6	Sheffield United	22	8	6	8	-5	30
7	Nott'm Forest	18	8	5	5	+10	29
8	Hull	23	8	5	10	+1	29
9	Swansea	23	8	5	10	-8	29
10	Middlesbrough	22	7	7	8	+3	28
11	Stoke	23	7	7	9	+0	28
12	QPR	22	8	3	11	-5	27
13	Preston	23	7	6	10	-10	27
14	Cardiff	21	7	5	9	-9	26
15	Millwall	22	5	8	9	-8	23
16	West Brom	23	6	5	12	-10	23
17	Bristol City	22	7	2	13	-18	23
18	Blackburn	22	5	7	10	-6	22
19	Reading	22	6	4	12	-18	22
20	Blackpool	21	4	9	8	-4	21
21	Birmingham	23	4	7	12	-22	19
22	Derby	23	2	6	15	-19	12
23	Peterboro	22	3	3	16	-35	12
24	Peterborough	22	3	3	16	-35	12
25	Barnsley	23	1	6	16	-25	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.