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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Juventus

S U T S S

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 43%

57%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

38%

43%

Both score Ø 41%

24%

57%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,02 xG 0,69

44% Possession 56%

7 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

5 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 4. · Fiorentina 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	21	18	2	1	+36	+1.9	56
2	Inter	21	14	1	6	+15	+2.6	43
3	Atalanta	22	12	5	5	+17	+1.4	41
4	Juventus	21	12	5	4	+16	+2.7	41
5	Roma	22	12	5	5	+10	+2.7	41
6	Milan	22	12	5	5	+8	-3.1	41
7	Lazio	22	11	6	5	+18	-0.5	39
8	Udinese	22	7	9	6	+5	+1.0	30
9	Torino	22	8	6	8	-1	+0.3	30
10	Monza	22	8	5	9	-2	+0.2	29
11	Bologna	22	8	5	9	-4	+0.8	29
12	Empoli	22	6	9	7	-7	-0.5	27
13	Lecce	22	5	9	8	-3	+0.1	24
14	Fiorentina	21	6	6	9	-5	+1.2	24
15	Sassuolo	22	6	6	10	-7	+0.7	24
16	Salernitana	21	5	6	10	-16	-3.0	21
17	Spezia	22	4	7	11	-18	-3.5	19
18	Verona	21	3	5	13	-14	-1.1	14
19	Sampdoria	21	2	4	15	-26	-2.0	10
20	Cremonese	21	0	8	13	-22	-1.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	9	1	0	+20	+0.2	28
2	Inter	11	9	0	2	+17	+1.2	27
3	Milan	11	8	1	2	+9	-0.2	25
4	Juventus	11	7	3	1	+16	+1.3	24
5	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+9	-0.2	21
6	Roma	10	6	1	3	+7	-0.5	19
7	Bologna	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.9	19
8	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+8	+1.0	17
9	Empoli	11	4	4	3	+0	-0.4	16
10	Udinese	11	3	6	2	+5	+2.1	15
11	Monza	11	4	3	4	+3	+0.9	15
12	Torino	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.1	15
13	Fiorentina	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.7	15
14	Sassuolo	10	4	2	4	+2	+0.8	14
15	Lecce	11	2	6	3	-1	-1.1	12
16	Salernitana	11	3	3	5	-2	-2.4	12
17	Spezia	11	2	6	3	-4	-2.4	12
18	Verona	11	3	1	7	-5	+0.0	10
19	Cremonese	11	0	3	8	-14	-2.3	3
20	Sampdoria	10	0	2	8	-14	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	9	1	1	+16	+1.6	28
2	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+9	+0.4	24
3	Roma	12	6	4	2	+3	+3.2	22
4	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+9	-0.3	18
5	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+0	+1.5	17
6	Milan	11	4	4	3	-1	-2.9	16
7	Inter	10	5	1	4	-2	+1.4	16
8	Udinese	11	4	3	4	+0	-1.1	15
9	Torino	12	4	3	5	-3	-0.8	15
10	Monza	11	4	2	5	-5	-0.8	14
11	Lecce	11	3	3	5	-2	+1.2	12
12	Empoli	11	2	5	4	-7	-0.1	11
13	Sassuolo	12	2	4	6	-9	-0.1	10
14	Bologna	10	3	1	6	-10	-0.1	10
15	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-3	+0.4	9
16	Salernitana	10	2	3	5	-14	-0.6	9
17	Sampdoria	11	2	2	7	-12	-1.9	8
18	Spezia	11	2	1	8	-14	-1.1	7
19	Cremonese	10	0	5	5	-8	+0.6	5
20	Verona	10	0	4	6	-9	-1.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.