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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Nantes

U U T S U

1–0

Full-time

Lorient

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

23%

45%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

41%

73%

Both score Ø 61%

45%

77%

Average goals

2,2

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,00 xG 1,12

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 13. · Lorient 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	17	3	3	+35	+2.1	54
2	Marseille	23	15	4	4	+25	+3.1	49
3	Monaco	23	14	5	4	+21	+3.0	47
4	Lens	22	13	7	2	+18	+0.9	46
5	Lille	23	12	5	6	+13	+3.6	41
6	Rennes	23	12	4	7	+14	+0.5	40
7	Nice	23	10	7	6	+9	+0.5	37
8	Lorient	22	10	6	6	+1	-3.8	36
9	Reims	23	7	12	4	+4	+5.7	33
10	Lyon	22	9	5	8	+9	+2.0	32
11	Toulouse	23	9	5	9	+0	+0.9	32
12	Clermont	23	8	6	9	-7	-2.1	30
13	Nantes	22	5	10	7	-3	-1.0	25
14	Montpellier	23	7	2	14	-11	-3.2	23
15	Brest	23	4	8	11	-14	-3.8	20
16	Troyes	23	4	7	12	-19	-4.2	19
17	Strasbourg	23	3	9	11	-14	-3.8	18
18	Ajaccio	23	5	3	15	-24	+0.3	18
19	Auxerre	23	3	6	14	-28	+3.4	15
20	Angers	23	2	4	17	-29	-4.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	12	10	0	2	+18	+0.5	30
2	Lens	11	10	0	1	+14	-1.6	30
3	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+16	+0.2	29
4	Lille	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.7	24
5	Monaco	12	7	2	3	+10	+1.9	23
6	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+10	+0.8	23
7	Toulouse	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.7	22
8	Reims	11	5	4	2	+5	+5.2	19
9	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+8	+2.0	18
10	Nice	11	5	3	3	+6	-0.1	18
11	Lorient	11	5	3	3	+2	-0.2	18
12	Nantes	10	3	5	2	+1	-0.4	14
13	Clermont	12	4	2	6	-10	-2.0	14
14	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	-2.1	13
15	Brest	11	2	5	4	-6	-0.0	11
16	Troyes	11	1	7	3	-5	-1.5	10
17	Auxerre	11	2	4	5	-10	+1.4	10
18	Strasbourg	12	1	6	5	-6	-0.2	9
19	Ajaccio	11	2	1	8	-11	-0.5	7
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-12	-2.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	11	8	2	1	+15	+2.3	26
2	Paris SG	12	8	1	3	+19	+1.8	25
3	Monaco	11	7	3	1	+11	+1.1	24
4	Nice	12	5	4	3	+3	+0.6	19
5	Lorient	11	5	3	3	-1	-3.6	18
6	Lille	11	5	2	4	+7	+0.8	17
7	Lens	11	3	7	1	+4	+2.6	16
8	Clermont	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.1	16
9	Lyon	11	4	2	5	+1	+0.0	14
10	Reims	12	2	8	2	-1	+0.5	14
11	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-4	-0.6	11
12	Ajaccio	12	3	2	7	-13	+0.8	11
13	Rennes	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.0	10
14	Montpellier	11	3	1	7	-6	-1.1	10
15	Toulouse	11	3	1	7	-6	-0.9	10
16	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.6	9
17	Brest	12	2	3	7	-8	-3.8	9
18	Troyes	12	3	0	9	-14	-2.6	9
19	Angers	11	1	2	8	-17	-1.3	5
20	Auxerre	12	1	2	9	-18	+2.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.