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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Atalanta

S U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Lazio

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 50%

52%

48%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

52%

33%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,27 xG 1,22

53% Possession 47%

19 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 4. · Lazio 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	21	17	3	1	+40	+27.5	54
2	Juventus	22	16	5	1	+23	+19.6	53
3	Milan	23	15	4	4	+19	+8.9	49
4	Atalanta	21	11	3	7	+16	+8.2	36
5	Bologna	22	9	9	4	+7	+4.2	36
6	Roma	22	10	5	7	+10	+9.0	35
7	Napoli	22	10	5	7	+6	+13.3	35
8	Fiorentina	22	10	4	8	+6	-1.3	34
9	Lazio	21	10	4	7	+4	+4.3	34
10	Torino	22	8	8	6	+1	+1.1	32
11	Genoa	23	7	8	8	-2	-2.8	29
12	Monza	23	7	8	8	-7	-10.5	29
13	Lecce	23	5	9	9	-9	-10.0	24
14	Frosinone	23	6	5	12	-13	-9.6	23
15	Sassuolo	22	5	4	13	-13	-8.0	19
16	Udinese	23	2	13	8	-14	-5.8	19
17	Verona	23	4	6	13	-11	-7.2	18
18	Cagliari	22	4	6	12	-17	-6.9	18
19	Empoli	23	4	6	13	-21	-10.5	18
20	Salernitana	23	2	7	14	-25	-23.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	11	8	3	0	+12	+10.8	27
2	Bologna	11	8	2	1	+11	+3.9	26
3	Inter	10	8	1	1	+19	+15.8	25
4	Atalanta	11	8	1	2	+17	+8.2	25
5	Milan	11	8	1	2	+13	+6.2	25
6	Roma	11	7	3	1	+15	+7.5	24
7	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+5	+5.2	21
8	Fiorentina	11	6	2	3	+6	+2.5	20
9	Torino	11	5	5	1	+6	+5.7	20
10	Frosinone	12	6	2	4	+3	-0.6	20
11	Lecce	12	5	4	3	-2	-0.9	19
12	Genoa	11	4	5	2	+2	-1.6	17
13	Napoli	11	5	2	4	+1	+8.2	17
14	Monza	11	4	4	3	+1	-3.5	16
15	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	-4	+3.6	15
16	Verona	11	3	4	4	-2	-0.7	13
17	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-2	-1.2	11
18	Udinese	12	1	7	4	-4	+1.1	10
19	Empoli	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.9	9
20	Salernitana	12	1	4	7	-12	-8.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	2	0	+21	+11.8	29
2	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+11	+8.9	26
3	Milan	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.6	24
4	Napoli	11	5	3	3	+5	+5.1	18
5	Fiorentina	11	4	2	5	+0	-3.7	14
6	Lazio	10	4	1	5	-1	-0.9	13
7	Monza	12	3	4	5	-8	-7.0	13
8	Genoa	12	3	3	6	-4	-1.2	12
9	Torino	11	3	3	5	-5	-4.6	12
10	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.0	11
11	Roma	11	3	2	6	-5	+1.4	11
12	Bologna	11	1	7	3	-4	+0.4	10
13	Udinese	11	1	6	4	-10	-7.0	9
14	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-12	-6.6	9
15	Sassuolo	12	2	2	8	-11	-6.8	8
16	Salernitana	11	1	3	7	-13	-14.9	6
17	Lecce	11	0	5	6	-7	-9.1	5
18	Verona	12	1	2	9	-9	-6.5	5
19	Cagliari	11	0	3	8	-13	-10.6	3
20	Frosinone	11	0	3	8	-16	-9.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.