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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Sp Braga

U T T S U

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 53%

58%

47%

Points per game

1,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

68%

47%

Both score Ø 63%

84%

42%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,73 xG 0,48

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

5 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 5. · Moreirense 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	20	16	3	1	+32	+26.2	51
2	Sp Lisbon	19	16	1	2	+34	+25.2	49
3	Porto	20	14	3	3	+20	+13.2	45
4	Guimaraes	20	12	3	5	+12	+5.6	39
5	Sp Braga	19	11	4	4	+16	+13.7	37
6	Moreirense	19	9	5	5	+2	-0.1	32
7	Arouca	20	7	4	9	+5	-0.8	25
8	Farense	20	7	4	9	+0	-5.4	25
9	Gil Vicente	20	6	4	10	-4	-7.5	22
10	Famalicao	19	5	7	7	-5	-5.1	22
11	Estoril	20	6	3	11	-1	-9.1	21
12	Portimonense	20	6	3	11	-18	-11.9	21
13	Boavista	19	5	5	9	-10	-9.8	20
14	Casa Pia	19	5	4	10	-15	-8.2	19
15	Rio Ave	20	3	9	8	-9	+0.7	18
16	Estrela	20	4	6	10	-13	-7.3	18
17	Chaves	20	3	5	12	-26	-12.2	14
18	Vizela	20	2	7	11	-20	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	10	0	0	+25	+16.6	30
2	Benfica	10	8	2	0	+19	+15.7	26
3	Guimaraes	10	8	0	2	+13	+8.2	24
4	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.2	23
5	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+10	-2.8	19
6	Estoril	10	5	1	4	+10	+0.9	16
7	Sp Braga	9	4	3	2	+9	+14.3	15
8	Farense	10	4	2	4	+3	+0.5	14
9	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+1	+0.7	14
10	Rio Ave	10	3	4	3	+0	+4.0	13
11	Famalicao	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
12	Arouca	10	3	2	5	+1	-0.6	11
13	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.5	11
14	Boavista	10	2	4	4	-7	-2.5	10
15	Estrela	10	3	1	6	-7	-5.0	10
16	Chaves	10	2	3	5	-7	-1.8	9
17	Vizela	11	1	3	7	-12	-2.2	6
18	Casa Pia	9	1	2	6	-8	-2.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.5	25
2	Porto	10	7	1	2	+8	+0.0	22
3	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+7	-0.7	22
4	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
5	Moreirense	10	5	3	2	+1	-0.8	18
6	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	-1	-2.5	15
7	Arouca	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.2	14
8	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-7	-5.6	14
9	Farense	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.9	11
10	Boavista	9	3	1	5	-3	-7.3	10
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	-3	-4.0	10
12	Portimonense	10	3	1	6	-12	-7.5	10
13	Estrela	10	1	5	4	-6	-2.4	8
14	Vizela	9	1	4	4	-8	-4.9	7
15	Rio Ave	10	0	5	5	-9	-3.3	5
16	Estoril	10	1	2	7	-11	-10.1	5
17	Chaves	10	1	2	7	-19	-10.4	5
18	Gil Vicente	10	1	0	9	-14	-4.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.