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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Milan

T S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Napoli

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,0

1,8

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 55%

65%

45%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

64%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,90 xG 0,67

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Napoli 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	23	19	3	1	+43	+28.9	60
2	Juventus	23	16	5	2	+22	+18.6	53
3	Milan	23	15	4	4	+19	+8.9	49
4	Atalanta	23	13	3	7	+21	+10.6	42
5	Bologna	23	10	9	4	+11	+4.6	39
6	Roma	24	11	5	8	+12	+10.9	38
7	Fiorentina	23	11	4	8	+10	-0.1	37
8	Lazio	23	11	4	8	+4	+3.8	37
9	Napoli	22	10	5	7	+6	+13.3	35
10	Torino	23	8	9	6	+1	+1.7	33
11	Monza	24	7	9	8	-7	-10.5	30
12	Genoa	24	7	8	9	-5	-4.1	29
13	Lecce	24	5	9	10	-13	-10.4	24
14	Frosinone	24	6	5	13	-17	-10.8	23
15	Empoli	24	5	6	13	-19	-9.1	21
16	Sassuolo	23	5	5	13	-13	-8.7	20
17	Verona	24	4	7	13	-11	-7.2	19
18	Udinese	23	2	13	8	-14	-5.8	19
19	Cagliari	24	4	6	14	-23	-9.6	18
20	Salernitana	24	2	7	15	-27	-24.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	12	9	2	1	+15	+4.2	29
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+20	+16.8	28
3	Atalanta	12	9	1	2	+19	+9.3	28
4	Roma	13	8	3	2	+17	+9.4	27
5	Juventus	11	8	3	0	+12	+10.8	27
6	Milan	11	8	1	2	+13	+6.2	25
7	Fiorentina	12	7	2	3	+10	+3.7	23
8	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+5	+5.2	21
9	Torino	11	5	5	1	+6	+5.7	20
10	Frosinone	12	6	2	4	+3	-0.6	20
11	Lecce	12	5	4	3	-2	-0.9	19
12	Napoli	11	5	2	4	+1	+8.2	17
13	Monza	12	4	5	3	+1	-3.5	17
14	Genoa	12	4	5	3	-1	-2.9	17
15	Cagliari	12	4	3	5	-6	+3.1	15
16	Verona	11	3	4	4	-2	-0.7	13
17	Sassuolo	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.8	12
18	Udinese	12	1	7	4	-4	+1.1	10
19	Empoli	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.9	9
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-14	-10.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	2	0	+23	+12.0	32
2	Juventus	12	8	2	2	+10	+7.8	26
3	Milan	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.6	24
4	Napoli	11	5	3	3	+5	+5.1	18
5	Lazio	12	5	1	6	-1	-1.4	16
6	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	+2	+1.3	14
7	Fiorentina	11	4	2	5	+0	-3.7	14
8	Torino	12	3	4	5	-5	-4.0	13
9	Monza	12	3	4	5	-8	-7.0	13
10	Genoa	12	3	3	6	-4	-1.2	12
11	Empoli	12	3	3	6	-10	-5.3	12
12	Roma	11	3	2	6	-5	+1.4	11
13	Bologna	11	1	7	3	-4	+0.4	10
14	Udinese	11	1	6	4	-10	-7.0	9
15	Sassuolo	12	2	2	8	-11	-6.8	8
16	Verona	13	1	3	9	-9	-6.5	6
17	Salernitana	11	1	3	7	-13	-14.9	6
18	Lecce	12	0	5	7	-11	-9.5	5
19	Cagliari	12	0	3	9	-17	-12.7	3
20	Frosinone	12	0	3	9	-20	-10.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.