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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Lazio

S T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Milan

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

0,8

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 56%

48%

64%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

76%

45%

Both score Ø 57%

61%

52%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

7 Shots 25

2 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 9

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 6. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	33	21	9	3	+45	72
2	Milan	33	21	8	4	+29	71
3	Napoli	34	20	7	7	+31	67
4	Juventus	33	18	9	6	+21	63
5	Roma	34	17	7	10	+15	58
6	Lazio	33	16	8	9	+17	56
7	Fiorentina	33	17	5	11	+12	56
8	Atalanta	33	15	9	9	+18	54
9	Verona	34	13	10	11	+8	49
10	Sassuolo	33	12	10	11	+5	46
11	Torino	33	11	10	12	+6	43
12	Udinese	33	9	13	11	-3	40
13	Bologna	33	10	9	14	-10	39
14	Empoli	34	9	10	15	-17	37
15	Spezia	34	9	6	19	-25	33
16	Sampdoria	34	8	6	20	-16	30
17	Cagliari	34	6	10	18	-31	28
18	Genoa	34	3	16	15	-29	25
19	Salernitana	33	6	7	20	-42	25
20	Venezia	33	5	7	21	-34	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	12	3	2	+27	39
2	Fiorentina	16	11	2	3	+18	35
3	Milan	17	10	4	3	+13	34
4	Roma	17	10	4	3	+10	34
5	Lazio	16	9	5	2	+16	32
6	Juventus	17	9	4	4	+10	31
7	Napoli	17	9	3	5	+13	30
8	Verona	17	9	3	5	+12	30
9	Torino	17	8	5	4	+12	29
10	Udinese	17	6	7	4	+4	25
11	Bologna	17	7	4	6	+2	25
12	Sassuolo	16	6	5	5	+1	23
13	Atalanta	16	4	6	6	+3	18
14	Spezia	16	5	3	8	-3	18
15	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-14	16
16	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-7	15
17	Cagliari	17	3	6	8	-10	15
18	Genoa	17	2	8	7	-11	14
19	Salernitana	16	2	5	9	-19	11
20	Venezia	17	2	4	11	-18	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	17	11	4	2	+18	37
2	Milan	16	11	4	1	+16	37
3	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+15	36
4	Inter	16	9	6	1	+18	33
5	Juventus	16	9	5	2	+11	32
6	Roma	17	7	3	7	+5	24
7	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+1	24
8	Sassuolo	17	6	5	6	+4	23
9	Empoli	17	5	6	6	-3	21
10	Fiorentina	17	6	3	8	-6	21
11	Verona	17	4	7	6	-4	19
12	Udinese	16	3	6	7	-7	15
13	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-9	15
14	Spezia	18	4	3	11	-22	15
15	Torino	16	3	5	8	-6	14
16	Bologna	16	3	5	8	-12	14
17	Salernitana	17	4	2	11	-23	14
18	Cagliari	17	3	4	10	-21	13
19	Venezia	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Genoa	17	1	8	8	-18	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.