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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Monza

T T S U U

4–2

Full-time

Milan

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

29%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

33%

63%

Both score Ø 46%

38%

54%

Average goals

2,0

3,1

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,75 xG 1,33

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

11 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Monza 12. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	24	20	3	1	+47	+32.8	63
2	Juventus	25	16	6	3	+21	+20.9	54
3	Milan	24	16	4	4	+20	+9.1	52
4	Atalanta	24	14	3	7	+24	+13.4	45
5	Bologna	25	12	9	4	+14	+6.1	45
6	Roma	25	12	5	8	+15	+11.2	41
7	Fiorentina	25	11	5	9	+8	-1.6	38
8	Lazio	24	11	4	9	+3	+3.6	37
9	Napoli	24	10	6	8	+5	+14.2	36
10	Torino	24	9	9	6	+3	+2.6	36
11	Genoa	25	7	9	9	-5	-5.2	30
12	Monza	24	7	9	8	-7	-10.5	30
13	Lecce	25	5	9	11	-15	-11.3	24
14	Udinese	25	3	14	8	-13	-6.1	23
15	Frosinone	25	6	5	14	-20	-11.1	23
16	Empoli	25	5	7	13	-19	-8.8	22
17	Verona	25	4	8	13	-11	-8.5	20
18	Sassuolo	24	5	5	14	-16	-11.5	20
19	Cagliari	25	4	7	14	-23	-10.4	19
20	Salernitana	25	2	7	16	-31	-28.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	13	10	2	1	+17	+5.5	32
2	Inter	12	10	1	1	+24	+20.8	31
3	Atalanta	13	10	1	2	+22	+12.1	31
4	Milan	12	9	1	2	+14	+6.5	28
5	Roma	13	8	3	2	+17	+9.4	27
6	Juventus	12	8	3	1	+11	+11.8	27
7	Fiorentina	12	7	2	3	+10	+3.7	23
8	Torino	12	6	5	1	+8	+6.6	23
9	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+4	+4.9	21
10	Frosinone	13	6	2	5	+0	-1.0	20
11	Lecce	12	5	4	3	-2	-0.9	19
12	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+1	+9.3	18
13	Monza	12	4	5	3	+1	-3.5	17
14	Genoa	12	4	5	3	-1	-2.9	17
15	Cagliari	12	4	3	5	-6	+3.1	15
16	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.0	14
17	Sassuolo	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.8	12
18	Udinese	13	1	8	4	-4	+1.9	11
19	Empoli	13	2	4	7	-9	-3.6	10
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-14	-10.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	2	0	+23	+12.0	32
2	Juventus	13	8	3	2	+10	+9.1	27
3	Milan	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.6	24
4	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+4	+4.9	18
5	Lazio	12	5	1	6	-1	-1.4	16
6	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	-2	-5.3	15
7	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	+2	+1.3	14
8	Roma	12	4	2	6	-2	+1.8	14
9	Bologna	12	2	7	3	-3	+0.6	13
10	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.3	13
11	Torino	12	3	4	5	-5	-4.0	13
12	Monza	12	3	4	5	-8	-7.0	13
13	Udinese	12	2	6	4	-9	-8.0	12
14	Empoli	12	3	3	6	-10	-5.3	12
15	Sassuolo	13	2	2	9	-14	-9.6	8
16	Verona	13	1	3	9	-9	-6.5	6
17	Salernitana	12	1	3	8	-17	-18.9	6
18	Lecce	13	0	5	8	-13	-10.4	5
19	Cagliari	13	0	4	9	-17	-13.4	4
20	Frosinone	12	0	3	9	-20	-10.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.