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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Milan

T U S T S

3–0

Full-time

Lecce

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

100%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

80%

20%

Average goals

3,6

2,2

Scored

2,2

0,6

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,65 xG 0,49

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 4

5 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Lecce 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Torino	5	3	2	0	+3	-1.1	11
2	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+5	+2.3	10
3	Udinese	5	3	1	1	+0	-2.7	10
4	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+6	+2.2	9
5	Empoli	5	2	3	0	+3	-1.4	9
6	Inter	5	2	2	1	+5	+2.4	8
7	Milan	5	2	2	1	+4	+3.6	8
8	Lazio	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.7	7
9	Roma	5	1	3	1	+2	+1.3	6
10	Verona	5	2	0	3	+0	-2.0	6
11	Fiorentina	5	1	3	1	+0	+3.0	6
12	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.5	6
13	Bologna	5	1	3	1	-2	+1.0	6
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.8	5
15	Como	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.5	5
16	Genoa	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.7	5
17	Lecce	5	1	2	2	-5	-1.9	5
18	Venezia	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.1	4
19	Monza	5	0	3	2	-2	-3.8	3
20	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-7	+0.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.9	7
2	Inter	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.1	6
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
4	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.2	6
5	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
6	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	+3.8	5
7	Milan	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.1	4
8	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
9	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
10	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.9	4
11	Roma	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.5	3
12	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
13	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
14	Verona	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.6	3
15	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.7	2
16	Empoli	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
17	Genoa	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.8	2
18	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2
19	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
20	Monza	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Empoli	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.2	7
2	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
3	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.1	4
4	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.0	4
5	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
6	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
7	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
8	Como	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
9	Verona	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.4	3
10	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
11	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
12	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
13	Inter	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.3	2
14	Monza	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
15	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.8	1
16	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
17	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.0	1
18	Venezia	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.0	1
19	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
20	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.