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Serie A

Referee: D Di Marco

Inter

T S U U U

2–0

Full-time

Lecce

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

2,0

4,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,42 xG 0,27

61% Possession 39%

11 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 6

4 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 9. · Lecce 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
2	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.7	4
3	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.2	3
4	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
5	Verona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
6	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
7	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
8	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
9	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
12	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
13	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
14	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
15	Monza	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
16	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
17	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
18	Como	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
19	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0
20	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
2	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
3	Verona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
5	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
6	Milan	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
7	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
8	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
9	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
10	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.2	3
2	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
3	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
4	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
5	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
6	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
7	Monza	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
8	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
9	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
10	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
11	Como	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
12	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.