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Serie A

Referee: F Dionisi

Milan

S S U U S

3–0

Full-time

Empoli

U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Empoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 33%

42%

23%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

67%

23%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

2,8

1,6

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,29 xG 0,54

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 0

11 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Empoli 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	9	2	2	+11	+7.9	29
2	Atalanta	13	9	1	3	+18	+12.7	28
3	Inter	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.3	28
4	Fiorentina	13	8	4	1	+17	+8.1	28
5	Lazio	13	9	1	3	+14	+12.6	28
6	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+14	+9.6	25
7	Milan	12	5	4	3	+6	+9.0	19
8	Bologna	12	4	6	2	-1	-1.4	18
9	Udinese	13	5	2	6	-3	-5.6	17
10	Empoli	13	3	7	3	-1	-8.0	16
11	Torino	13	4	3	6	-3	-5.3	15
12	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-9	-3.3	14
13	Roma	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.5	13
14	Parma	13	2	6	5	-4	-3.5	12
15	Lecce	13	3	3	7	-15	-8.1	12
16	Verona	14	4	0	10	-16	-11.7	12
17	Como	14	2	5	7	-12	-1.7	11
18	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-13	-10.0	11
19	Monza	14	1	7	6	-5	-6.5	10
20	Venezia	13	2	2	9	-11	-3.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+11	+11.0	19
2	Napoli	7	6	0	1	+7	+7.6	18
3	Atalanta	6	5	0	1	+12	+6.7	15
4	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.2	14
5	Inter	7	4	2	1	+7	+5.0	14
6	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+6	+6.3	13
7	Udinese	6	4	0	2	+2	-2.3	12
8	Milan	6	3	2	1	+6	+4.5	11
9	Roma	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.5	9
10	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-6	-0.2	9
11	Verona	7	3	0	4	-7	-4.0	9
12	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	-3.3	8
13	Lecce	6	2	2	2	-8	-0.6	8
14	Bologna	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.6	7
15	Empoli	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.6	7
16	Venezia	6	2	0	4	-2	+3.9	6
17	Como	6	1	3	2	-5	-0.2	6
18	Parma	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.7	5
19	Genoa	8	0	5	3	-6	-4.5	5
20	Monza	7	0	3	4	-4	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.3	14
2	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+9	+0.9	14
3	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.0	13
4	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+8	+3.2	12
5	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.3	11
6	Bologna	7	3	2	2	-2	-3.0	11
7	Lazio	6	3	0	3	+3	+1.6	9
8	Empoli	6	2	3	1	+2	-5.3	9
9	Milan	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.5	8
10	Parma	6	1	4	1	+0	-1.8	7
11	Monza	7	1	4	2	-1	-3.4	7
12	Torino	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.0	7
13	Genoa	5	2	0	3	-7	-5.5	6
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-3.2	5
15	Udinese	7	1	2	4	-5	-3.2	5
16	Como	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.5	5
17	Roma	7	0	4	3	-6	-3.0	4
18	Lecce	7	1	1	5	-7	-7.5	4
19	Verona	7	1	0	6	-9	-7.7	3
20	Venezia	7	0	2	5	-9	-7.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.