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Ekstraklasa

Referee: L Kuźma

Motor Lublin

T S S U T

4–1

Full-time

Stal Mielec

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motor Lublin Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

40%

24%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

60%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,03 xG 1,21

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Motor Lublin 8. · Stal Mielec 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	25	15	7	3	+21	+10.6	52
2	Jagiellonia	26	15	6	5	+16	+2.5	51
3	Lech Poznan	26	16	2	8	+24	+9.1	50
4	Pogon Szczecin	26	13	5	8	+13	+10.6	44
5	Legia	26	11	8	7	+13	+9.9	41
6	Cracovia	26	11	8	7	+7	-4.2	41
7	Gornik Zabrze	25	12	4	9	+7	+3.9	40
8	Motor Lublin	25	10	6	9	-9	-1.0	36
9	Radomiak Radom	26	10	4	12	-3	+0.6	34
10	GKS Katowice	25	9	6	10	+2	+2.7	33
11	Piast Gliwice	26	8	9	9	-2	-2.5	33
12	Widzew Lodz	26	9	6	11	-9	-5.2	33
13	Korona Kielce	26	8	9	9	-9	-1.3	33
14	Puszcza	26	6	7	13	-13	-13.7	25
15	Lechia Gdansk	26	6	6	14	-17	-15.3	24
16	Stal Mielec	25	6	5	14	-12	+1.5	23
17	Zaglebie	25	6	5	14	-17	-7.3	23
18	Slask Wroclaw	26	4	9	13	-12	-1.1	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	13	11	0	2	+23	+8.3	33
2	Pogon Szczecin	13	10	1	2	+14	+11.9	31
3	Jagiellonia	13	9	3	1	+16	+4.3	30
4	Legia	13	8	3	2	+15	+8.6	27
5	Rakow	13	7	3	3	+9	+6.0	24
6	Gornik Zabrze	13	7	2	4	+8	+6.1	23
7	Widzew Lodz	13	6	2	5	-2	-1.2	20
8	Radomiak Radom	13	5	4	4	+5	+4.2	19
9	GKS Katowice	12	5	4	3	+5	-1.8	19
10	Motor Lublin	12	5	4	3	+1	+0.1	19
11	Cracovia	14	4	6	4	+2	-0.7	18
12	Stal Mielec	13	5	3	5	-1	+5.6	18
13	Korona Kielce	13	5	2	6	-3	+3.9	17
14	Puszcza	12	4	4	4	-1	-1.8	16
15	Piast Gliwice	13	3	6	4	-3	-0.4	15
16	Slask Wroclaw	13	3	5	5	-1	-0.4	14
17	Zaglebie	12	4	2	6	-4	-2.9	14
18	Lechia Gdansk	13	4	2	7	-8	-8.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	12	8	4	0	+12	+4.7	28
2	Cracovia	12	7	2	3	+5	-3.5	23
3	Jagiellonia	13	6	3	4	+0	-1.8	21
4	Piast Gliwice	13	5	3	5	+1	-2.0	18
5	Lech Poznan	13	5	2	6	+1	+0.7	17
6	Gornik Zabrze	12	5	2	5	-1	-2.1	17
7	Motor Lublin	13	5	2	6	-10	-1.1	17
8	Korona Kielce	13	3	7	3	-6	-5.2	16
9	Radomiak Radom	13	5	0	8	-8	-3.7	15
10	Legia	13	3	5	5	-2	+1.3	14
11	GKS Katowice	13	4	2	7	-3	+4.5	14
12	Pogon Szczecin	13	3	4	6	-1	-1.3	13
13	Widzew Lodz	13	3	4	6	-7	-4.0	13
14	Lechia Gdansk	13	2	4	7	-9	-6.5	10
15	Puszcza	14	2	3	9	-12	-11.9	9
16	Zaglebie	13	2	3	8	-13	-4.4	9
17	Slask Wroclaw	13	1	4	8	-11	-0.7	7
18	Stal Mielec	12	1	2	9	-11	-4.1	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.