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Super League

Referee: L Piccolo

Winterthur

U T T T S

1–1

Full-time

Lugano

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,0

Scored

1,2

3,0

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 21/22 matches

Win Ø 35%

14%

55%

Points per game

0,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

86%

55%

Both score Ø 63%

67%

59%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

32% Possession 68%

11 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

24 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Winterthur 12. · Lugano 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	22	16	1	5	+22	+0.3	49
2	Lugano	22	12	4	6	+11	+1.2	40
3	St. Gallen	21	12	2	7	+14	+3.8	38
4	Basel	22	10	6	6	+8	+12.2	36
5	Sion	22	8	9	5	+6	+4.2	33
6	Young Boys	22	9	5	8	-2	-0.4	32
7	Lausanne	22	7	7	8	+2	+5.5	28
8	Servette	22	6	7	9	-5	+3.3	25
9	Zurich	22	7	4	11	-11	+2.6	25
10	Luzern	22	5	8	9	-3	-4.6	23
11	Grasshoppers	22	4	7	11	-11	-13.9	19
12	Winterthur	21	3	4	14	-31	-14.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	11	7	2	2	+11	+2.2	23
2	Thun	11	7	1	3	+10	-1.0	22
3	Young Boys	11	6	2	3	+9	+6.5	20
4	St. Gallen	11	6	0	5	+7	+5.4	18
5	Sion	11	5	3	3	+6	+1.1	18
6	Basel	11	4	4	3	+6	+15.0	16
7	Lausanne	11	4	3	4	+3	+8.0	15
8	Zurich	11	4	1	6	-4	+5.0	13
9	Servette	11	2	5	4	-3	+0.8	11
10	Grasshoppers	11	2	4	5	-1	-5.1	10
11	Luzern	11	1	5	5	-2	+1.8	8
12	Winterthur	10	2	2	6	-7	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	11	9	0	2	+12	+1.3	27
2	St. Gallen	10	6	2	2	+7	-1.6	20
3	Basel	11	6	2	3	+2	-2.8	20
4	Lugano	11	5	2	4	+0	-1.0	17
5	Sion	11	3	6	2	+0	+3.1	15
6	Luzern	11	4	3	4	-1	-6.4	15
7	Servette	11	4	2	5	-2	+2.5	14
8	Lausanne	11	3	4	4	-1	-2.6	13
9	Zurich	11	3	3	5	-7	-2.4	12
10	Young Boys	11	3	3	5	-11	-6.9	12
11	Grasshoppers	11	2	3	6	-10	-8.8	9
12	Winterthur	11	1	2	8	-24	-11.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.