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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Derby

T S S U S

1–2

Full-time

Ipswich

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Ipswich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 44%

40%

48%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

50%

52%

Both score Ø 65%

70%

59%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,08 xG 1,51

54% Possession 46%

9 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Ipswich 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	30	17	7	6	+28	+22.4	58
2	Ipswich	29	14	9	6	+21	+24.1	51
3	Middlesbrough	27	15	6	6	+11	+9.4	51
4	Hull	28	15	6	7	+9	-13.2	51
5	Millwall	29	14	8	7	+3	+5.4	50
6	Wrexham	30	12	11	7	+7	-3.5	47
7	Derby	30	12	9	9	+7	-3.5	45
8	Watford	30	11	11	8	+4	+5.9	44
9	Preston	30	11	11	8	+3	-8.9	44
10	QPR	31	12	8	11	-1	+1.8	44
11	Bristol City	30	12	7	11	+4	-0.5	43
12	Stoke	30	12	6	12	+6	-6.8	42
13	Birmingham	30	11	9	10	+3	+14.2	42
14	Southampton	28	10	9	9	+6	+12.1	39
15	Sheffield United	30	12	3	15	+0	+11.5	39
16	Swansea	30	11	6	13	-3	-5.8	39
17	Leicester	30	10	8	12	-5	-11.0	38
18	Charlton	30	9	9	12	-9	-13.2	36
19	Norwich	30	9	6	15	-5	-10.3	33
20	Portsmouth	28	8	9	11	-10	-3.6	33
21	Blackburn	30	8	8	14	-11	+4.2	32
22	West Brom	30	9	5	16	-15	+3.8	32
23	Oxford	30	6	9	15	-13	-5.6	27
24	Sheffield Weds	30	1	8	21	-40	-29.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	11	2	1	+20	+12.1	35
2	Ipswich	16	10	5	1	+18	+20.1	35
3	Middlesbrough	14	9	3	2	+10	+4.0	30
4	Millwall	15	9	3	3	+6	+8.3	30
5	Watford	16	8	5	3	+7	+5.3	29
6	Birmingham	14	7	6	1	+14	+16.2	27
7	Hull	14	8	3	3	+4	-4.0	27
8	QPR	15	8	2	5	+7	+8.5	26
9	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.6	25
10	Bristol City	16	7	3	6	+5	+0.3	24
11	Wrexham	15	6	6	3	+4	+5.8	24
12	Sheffield United	14	7	2	5	+9	+11.3	23
13	Preston	15	6	5	4	+3	-0.8	23
14	Southampton	13	6	4	3	+6	+9.1	22
15	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+3	+4.5	22
16	Leicester	15	6	4	5	+1	+0.7	22
17	Charlton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.3	22
18	West Brom	14	6	4	4	-1	+8.4	22
19	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+5	-0.6	21
20	Derby	15	4	6	5	-3	-0.6	18
21	Oxford	15	3	6	6	-6	+0.5	15
22	Blackburn	16	3	5	8	-7	+3.7	14
23	Norwich	14	4	1	9	-6	-1.7	13
24	Sheffield Weds	16	0	4	12	-26	-14.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	15	8	3	4	+10	-2.8	27
2	Hull	14	7	3	4	+5	-9.2	24
3	Coventry	16	6	5	5	+8	+10.3	23
4	Wrexham	15	6	5	4	+3	-9.3	23
5	Middlesbrough	13	6	3	4	+1	+5.3	21
6	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+1	-6.2	21
7	Preston	15	5	6	4	+0	-8.1	21
8	Norwich	16	5	5	6	+1	-8.6	20
9	Millwall	14	5	5	4	-3	-2.9	20
10	Bristol City	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.8	19
11	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-4	+0.4	18
12	QPR	16	4	6	6	-8	-6.7	18
13	Southampton	15	4	5	6	+0	+3.0	17
14	Ipswich	13	4	4	5	+3	+4.1	16
15	Leicester	15	4	4	7	-6	-11.7	16
16	Sheffield United	16	5	1	10	-9	+0.2	16
17	Watford	14	3	6	5	-3	+0.6	15
18	Birmingham	16	4	3	9	-11	-1.9	15
19	Swansea	15	4	2	9	-5	-4.2	14
20	Charlton	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.0	14
21	Oxford	15	3	3	9	-7	-6.1	12
22	Portsmouth	13	2	5	6	-13	-8.1	11
23	West Brom	16	3	1	12	-14	-4.6	10
24	Sheffield Weds	14	1	4	9	-14	-14.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.