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2. Bundesliga

Referee: E Weisbach

Paderborn

S U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Nurnberg

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Nurnberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

55%

35%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

60%

55%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

6 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Paderborn 4. · Nurnberg 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	20	12	3	5	+10	+5.5	39
2	Elversberg	20	11	5	4	+17	-0.2	38
3	Darmstadt	20	10	8	2	+14	+7.7	38
4	Paderborn	20	11	3	6	+8	+10.5	36
5	Hannover	20	10	5	5	+8	+7.1	35
6	Kaiserslautern	20	9	4	7	+8	-1.9	31
7	Hertha	20	8	7	5	+5	-3.1	31
8	Bochum	21	7	6	8	+3	+3.7	27
9	Nurnberg	20	7	5	8	-5	+1.6	26
10	Karlsruhe	20	7	5	8	-7	-14.4	26
11	Holstein Kiel	20	6	6	8	-1	-7.2	24
12	Braunschweig	20	7	3	10	-11	+1.2	24
13	Magdeburg	21	7	2	12	-6	+5.1	23
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	20	7	2	11	-11	-4.8	23
15	Preußen Münster	21	5	7	9	-7	-5.0	22
16	Bielefeld	20	5	6	9	+2	+0.6	21
17	Dresden	20	5	5	10	-7	+0.3	20
18	Greuther Furth	21	5	4	12	-20	-6.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	10	7	3	0	+12	+8.5	24
2	Kaiserslautern	11	7	1	3	+10	+1.7	22
3	Schalke 04	9	7	1	1	+6	+3.2	22
4	Elversberg	9	5	4	0	+10	-0.4	19
5	Paderborn	10	6	1	3	+3	+6.3	19
6	Nurnberg	11	5	4	2	+2	+1.7	19
7	Bochum	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.8	17
8	Hannover	9	5	1	3	+2	+5.6	16
9	Karlsruhe	9	5	1	3	+0	-6.2	16
10	Hertha	11	4	4	3	-1	-0.6	16
11	Preußen Münster	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
12	Bielefeld	10	4	2	4	+7	+6.4	14
13	Holstein Kiel	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.2	14
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	4	2	5	-5	-1.5	14
15	Braunschweig	11	4	2	5	-7	+1.5	14
16	Dresden	10	2	3	5	-2	+4.1	9
17	Greuther Furth	10	2	3	5	-10	-4.0	9
18	Magdeburg	10	2	1	7	-6	+3.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	11	6	1	4	+7	+0.2	19
2	Hannover	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.6	19
3	Paderborn	10	5	2	3	+5	+4.2	17
4	Schalke 04	11	5	2	4	+4	+2.3	17
5	Magdeburg	11	5	1	5	+0	+2.1	16
6	Hertha	9	4	3	2	+6	-2.5	15
7	Darmstadt	10	3	5	2	+2	-0.8	14
8	Dresden	10	3	2	5	-5	-3.8	11
9	Bochum	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.1	10
10	Holstein Kiel	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.1	10
11	Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.4	10
12	Karlsruhe	11	2	4	5	-7	-8.2	10
13	Greuther Furth	11	3	1	7	-10	-2.7	10
14	Kaiserslautern	9	2	3	4	-2	-3.6	9
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	0	6	-6	-3.2	9
16	Bielefeld	10	1	4	5	-5	-5.8	7
17	Nurnberg	9	2	1	6	-7	-0.1	7
18	Preußen Münster	10	2	1	7	-8	-5.4	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.