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Ekstraklasa

Referee: P Gryckiewicz

Jagiellonia

T T U U S

4–1

Full-time

Motor Lublin

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Motor Lublin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

26%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

67%

47%

Both score Ø 65%

67%

63%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

54% Possession 46%

22 Shots 13

11 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 3. · Motor Lublin 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	19	8	9	2	+10	+2.2	33
2	Gornik Zabrze	19	10	3	6	+6	-2.6	33
3	Jagiellonia	18	9	5	4	+10	-2.7	32
4	Zaglebie	20	8	7	5	+6	+0.5	31
5	Cracovia	20	8	7	5	+5	+3.5	31
6	Lechia Gdansk	20	8	5	7	+2	-1.6	29
7	Rakow	19	9	2	8	+2	+3.1	29
8	Korona Kielce	20	7	6	7	+2	-1.1	27
9	Radomiak Radom	18	7	5	6	+5	+0.9	26
10	Lech Poznan	19	6	8	5	+0	+11.8	26
11	Motor Lublin	19	5	9	5	-4	-2.7	24
12	Piast Gliwice	19	6	5	8	+0	-6.2	23
13	GKS Katowice	18	7	2	9	-3	-8.0	23
14	Arka Gdynia	19	6	4	9	-17	-6.4	22
15	Pogon Szczecin	19	6	3	10	-5	+8.7	21
16	Legia	20	4	8	8	-3	+2.4	20
17	Widzew Lodz	19	6	2	11	-4	+3.1	20
18	Nieciecza	19	5	4	10	-12	-4.8	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	11	7	3	1	+10	+4.9	24
2	Gornik Zabrze	10	7	1	2	+11	+3.1	22
3	Arka Gdynia	10	6	3	1	+4	-3.3	21
4	Radomiak Radom	9	6	2	1	+15	+5.4	20
5	Zaglebie	10	5	4	1	+11	+4.2	19
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	3	2	+9	+2.4	18
7	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	1	3	+6	+8.3	16
8	Cracovia	9	4	4	1	+5	+5.7	16
9	Jagiellonia	7	5	0	2	+7	+0.6	15
10	Motor Lublin	10	3	6	1	+2	+3.9	15
11	Korona Kielce	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.4	14
12	Widzew Lodz	10	4	2	4	+1	+2.7	14
13	Legia	10	3	4	3	+3	+1.9	13
14	GKS Katowice	9	4	1	4	+0	-3.5	13
15	Lech Poznan	10	3	4	3	-1	+8.1	13
16	Piast Gliwice	9	3	3	3	+1	-1.1	12
17	Rakow	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.8	11
18	Nieciecza	10	2	2	6	-8	-2.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	10	6	0	4	+3	+2.2	18
2	Jagiellonia	11	4	5	2	+3	-3.3	17
3	Cracovia	11	4	3	4	+0	-2.2	15
4	Lech Poznan	9	3	4	2	+1	+3.7	13
5	Korona Kielce	10	3	4	3	+0	-3.6	13
6	Zaglebie	10	3	3	4	-5	-3.8	12
7	Piast Gliwice	10	3	2	5	-1	-5.1	11
8	Nieciecza	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
9	Gornik Zabrze	9	3	2	4	-5	-5.8	11
10	Lechia Gdansk	10	3	2	5	-7	-3.9	11
11	GKS Katowice	9	3	1	5	-3	-4.5	10
12	Wisla Plock	8	1	6	1	+0	-2.7	9
13	Motor Lublin	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.6	9
14	Legia	10	1	4	5	-6	+0.4	7
15	Widzew Lodz	9	2	0	7	-5	+0.5	6
16	Radomiak Radom	9	1	3	5	-10	-4.5	6
17	Pogon Szczecin	10	1	2	7	-11	+0.4	5
18	Arka Gdynia	9	0	1	8	-21	-3.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.