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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Napoli
U U S U T
2–3
Full-time
Chelsea
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
1,0
2,3
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
29%
57%
Points per game
1,1
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
29%
71%
Both score Ø 50%
43%
57%
Average goals
2,7
3,1
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,7
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,98 xG 2,02
46% Possession 54%
8 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 1
1 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Napoli Chelsea
Juan Jesus 🟨
17′
19′
⚽ E. Fernandez 0–1
1–1 A. Vergara ⚽
33′
2–1 R. Hojlund ⚽
M. Olivera
43′
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 C. Palmer
↦ P. Neto
59′
🔁 J. Gittens
↦ Andrey Santos
59′
🔁 T. Chalobah
↦ M. Gusto
61′
⚽ Joao Pedro 2–2
C. Palmer
M. Gutierrez 🔁
↦ Juan Jesus
67′
Eljif Elmas 🟨
74′
74′
🔁 A. Garnacho
↦ Estêvão
R. Lukaku 🔁
↦ E. Elmas
82′
S. Beukema 🔁
↦ L. Spinazzola
82′
82′
⚽ Joao Pedro 2–3
C. Palmer
88′
🟨 Wesley Fofana
90′
🔁 B. Badiashile
↦
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Napoli

3-4-2-1
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
5 Juan Jesus D
4 A. Buongiorno D
37 L. Spinazzola M
68 S. Lobotka M
8 S. McTominay M
17 M. Olivera M
26 A. Vergara F
20 E. Elmas F
19 R. Hojlund F
Bench (7)
14 N. Contini
61 D. Spinelli
3 M. Gutierrez
9 R. Lukaku
31 S. Beukema
52 E. De Chiara
56 C. Garofalo

Coach: Antonio Conte

Chelsea

4-2-3-1
1 R. Sanchez G
27 M. Gusto D
24 R. James D
29 W. Fofana D
3 M. Cucurella D
17 Andrey Santos M
25 M. Caicedo M
41 Estêvão M
8 E. Fernandez M
7 P. Neto M
20 Joao Pedro F
Bench (12)
12 F. Jorgensen
50 M. Merrick
5 B. Badiashile
9 L. Delap
10 C. Palmer
11 J. Gittens
21 J. Hato
23 T. Chalobah
32 T. George
34 J. Acheampong
38 M. Guiu
49 A. Garnacho

Coach: Liam Rosenior

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.