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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Lecce

T T U U S

0–1

Full-time

Juventus

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,5

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 37%

23%

51%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

37%

40%

Both score Ø 42%

37%

46%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,88 xG 2,29

35% Possession 65%

8 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 7

2 Offside 6

7 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 17. · Juventus 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	36	27	4	5	+54	+35.7	85
2	Napoli	35	21	7	7	+19	+11.7	70
3	Milan	35	19	10	6	+19	+16.2	67
4	Juventus	35	18	11	6	+28	+31.9	65
5	Roma	35	20	4	11	+23	+10.8	64
6	Como	35	17	11	7	+31	+24.5	62
7	Atalanta	35	14	13	8	+15	+15.5	55
8	Lazio	36	13	12	11	+2	-4.1	51
9	Udinese	36	14	8	14	-1	-9.1	50
10	Bologna	35	14	7	14	+1	-1.3	49
11	Sassuolo	36	14	7	15	-2	-14.2	49
12	Torino	36	12	8	16	-18	-6.8	44
13	Parma	35	10	12	13	-17	-20.8	42
14	Genoa	35	10	10	15	-8	-1.5	40
15	Fiorentina	35	8	13	14	-11	+4.3	37
16	Cagliari	36	9	10	17	-15	-16.2	37
17	Lecce	35	8	8	19	-23	-24.7	32
18	Cremonese	35	6	10	19	-26	-22.4	28
19	Verona	35	3	11	21	-33	-11.0	20
20	Pisa	35	2	12	21	-38	-18.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	2	2	+34	+26.1	44
2	Napoli	17	12	4	1	+15	+2.8	40
3	Roma	18	12	3	3	+21	+12.2	39
4	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+21	+22.2	37
5	Como	18	9	6	3	+19	+20.0	33
6	Atalanta	18	9	6	3	+11	+16.6	33
7	Milan	17	9	5	3	+6	+10.6	32
8	Sassuolo	18	9	2	7	+0	-7.0	29
9	Lazio	18	7	6	5	+1	+0.5	27
10	Torino	18	8	3	7	-2	-2.5	27
11	Udinese	18	6	5	7	-2	-1.0	23
12	Cagliari	18	6	4	8	-2	-6.0	22
13	Genoa	18	6	4	8	-3	+2.8	22
14	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-4	+2.0	21
15	Fiorentina	17	4	7	6	+0	+9.9	19
16	Parma	17	4	6	7	-9	-9.3	18
17	Lecce	17	4	5	8	-11	-5.7	17
18	Cremonese	17	2	7	8	-11	-4.0	13
19	Pisa	18	2	4	12	-14	-4.7	10
20	Verona	17	1	5	11	-13	-2.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	2	3	+20	+9.6	41
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+13	+5.6	35
3	Napoli	18	9	3	6	+4	+8.9	30
4	Como	17	8	5	4	+12	+4.6	29
5	Juventus	17	8	4	5	+7	+9.7	28
6	Bologna	17	8	4	5	+5	-3.2	28
7	Udinese	18	8	3	7	+1	-8.1	27
8	Roma	17	8	1	8	+2	-1.4	25
9	Lazio	18	6	6	6	+1	-4.6	24
10	Parma	18	6	6	6	-8	-11.5	24
11	Atalanta	17	5	7	5	+4	-1.1	22
12	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-2	-7.2	20
13	Genoa	17	4	6	7	-5	-4.3	18
14	Fiorentina	18	4	6	8	-11	-5.6	18
15	Torino	18	4	5	9	-16	-4.2	17
16	Lecce	18	4	3	11	-12	-19.0	15
17	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-13	-10.2	15
18	Cremonese	18	4	3	11	-15	-18.5	15
19	Verona	18	2	6	10	-20	-8.5	12
20	Pisa	17	0	8	9	-24	-13.7	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.