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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Liverpool

S T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Chelsea

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 43%

49%

37%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

63%

66%

Both score Ø 63%

66%

60%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,56 xG 0,50

48% Possession 52%

8 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 4. · Chelsea 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	35	23	7	5	+41	+34.2	76
2	Man City	34	21	8	5	+37	+24.6	71
3	Man United	35	18	10	7	+15	+13.8	64
4	Liverpool	35	17	7	11	+12	+12.1	58
5	Aston Villa	35	17	7	11	+4	-6.1	58
6	Bournemouth	35	12	16	7	+3	+5.8	52
7	Brentford	35	14	9	12	+6	+10.1	51
8	Brighton	35	13	11	11	+7	+5.7	50
9	Chelsea	35	13	9	13	+6	+15.9	48
10	Everton	35	13	9	13	+0	-8.4	48
11	Fulham	35	14	6	15	-5	-7.2	48
12	Sunderland	35	12	11	12	-9	-17.0	47
13	Newcastle	35	13	6	16	-2	+6.1	45
14	Leeds	35	10	13	12	-5	+2.2	43
15	Crystal Palace	34	11	10	13	-6	+7.8	43
16	Nott'm Forest	35	11	9	15	-2	-8.7	42
17	Tottenham	35	9	10	16	-9	-13.0	37
18	West Ham	35	9	9	17	-19	-13.9	36
19	Burnley	35	4	8	23	-36	-41.0	20
20	Wolves	35	3	9	23	-38	-23.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	+20.9	44
2	Man City	16	12	3	1	+26	+14.1	39
3	Man United	18	12	3	3	+14	+14.2	39
4	Aston Villa	18	11	2	5	+8	+1.3	35
5	Liverpool	17	10	4	3	+14	+9.3	34
6	Fulham	17	10	2	5	+9	+2.2	32
7	Brentford	18	8	7	3	+12	+13.2	31
8	Brighton	17	8	6	3	+10	+7.4	30
9	Bournemouth	18	7	9	2	+9	+13.6	30
10	Leeds	18	8	5	5	+7	+10.0	29
11	Newcastle	18	9	2	7	+4	+8.3	29
12	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+4	-4.1	29
13	Everton	18	6	5	7	+1	-0.3	23
14	Chelsea	18	6	5	7	+0	+9.1	23
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	8	5	-3	+9.5	20
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-5	-1.8	19
17	Nott'm Forest	17	4	6	7	-3	+1.9	18
18	Wolves	18	3	4	11	-15	-7.7	13
19	Tottenham	17	2	5	10	-10	-4.2	11
20	Burnley	17	2	5	10	-11	-16.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	9	5	3	+12	+13.2	32
2	Man City	18	9	5	4	+11	+10.5	32
3	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+1	-8.8	26
4	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+6	+6.8	25
5	Man United	17	6	7	4	+1	-0.4	25
6	Everton	17	7	4	6	-1	-8.1	25
7	Nott'm Forest	18	7	3	8	+1	-10.6	24
8	Liverpool	18	7	3	8	-2	+2.8	24
9	Crystal Palace	17	7	2	8	-3	-1.7	23
10	Aston Villa	17	6	5	6	-4	-7.4	23
11	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-6	-7.8	22
12	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-3	-1.7	20
13	Brentford	17	6	2	9	-6	-3.1	20
14	Sunderland	18	4	6	8	-13	-12.9	18
15	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-14	-12.1	17
16	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-6	-2.2	16
17	Fulham	18	4	4	10	-14	-9.4	16
18	Leeds	17	2	8	7	-12	-7.8	14
19	Burnley	18	2	3	13	-25	-24.1	9
20	Wolves	17	0	5	12	-23	-15.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.