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Ekstraklasa

Referee: W Myc

Jagiellonia

T U U S T

3–2

Full-time

Pogon Szczecin

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Pogon Szczecin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

39%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

67%

55%

Both score Ø 63%

67%

58%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,09 xG 0,96

57% Possession 43%

20 Shots 10

14 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 11

7 Corners 0

3 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 5. · Pogon Szczecin 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	32	15	11	6	+15	+27.8	56
2	Gornik Zabrze	30	14	7	9	+9	-3.7	49
3	Rakow	31	14	7	10	+8	+8.2	49
4	GKS Katowice	31	14	5	12	+6	-5.3	47
5	Jagiellonia	30	12	10	8	+11	-4.9	46
6	Zaglebie	31	12	9	10	+7	-6.9	45
7	Wisla Plock	31	12	9	10	+1	-2.2	45
8	Radomiak Radom	31	11	10	10	+5	-0.4	43
9	Lechia Gdansk	32	12	7	13	-1	+5.6	43
10	Pogon Szczecin	31	12	5	14	-2	+5.4	41
11	Piast Gliwice	31	11	7	13	-1	-0.9	40
12	Legia	31	9	13	9	-1	+3.4	40
13	Widzew Lodz	32	11	6	15	+0	+4.2	39
14	Korona Kielce	32	10	9	13	-1	-3.8	39
15	Cracovia	31	9	12	10	-3	+1.5	39
16	Motor Lublin	31	9	12	10	-7	-9.9	39
17	Arka Gdynia	31	9	8	14	-23	-8.6	35
18	Nieciecza	31	7	7	17	-23	-9.4	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	GKS Katowice	16	10	2	4	+11	-0.1	32
2	Radomiak Radom	16	9	4	3	+17	+8.9	31
3	Gornik Zabrze	15	10	1	4	+15	+3.5	31
4	Pogon Szczecin	16	9	2	5	+9	+7.3	29
5	Arka Gdynia	15	8	5	2	+4	-1.0	29
6	Lechia Gdansk	16	8	4	4	+12	+6.1	28
7	Widzew Lodz	16	8	4	4	+7	+5.7	28
8	Zaglebie	16	7	6	3	+12	+1.3	27
9	Lech Poznan	16	7	6	3	+10	+16.7	27
10	Legia	16	7	6	3	+7	+5.9	27
11	Wisla Plock	15	8	3	4	+5	+2.0	27
12	Rakow	15	7	4	4	+7	+4.3	25
13	Jagiellonia	15	7	3	5	+8	+2.9	24
14	Korona Kielce	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.4	23
15	Motor Lublin	16	5	8	3	+3	+0.0	23
16	Cracovia	15	5	7	3	+4	+6.3	22
17	Piast Gliwice	15	6	3	6	+2	+3.3	21
18	Nieciecza	15	3	4	8	-10	-3.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	16	8	5	3	+5	+11.1	29
2	Rakow	16	7	3	6	+1	+3.9	24
3	Jagiellonia	15	5	7	3	+3	-7.8	22
4	Piast Gliwice	16	5	4	7	-3	-4.2	19
5	Wisla Plock	16	4	6	6	-4	-4.3	18
6	Zaglebie	15	5	3	7	-5	-8.2	18
7	Gornik Zabrze	15	4	6	5	-6	-7.2	18
8	Cracovia	16	4	5	7	-7	-4.8	17
9	Korona Kielce	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.2	16
10	Motor Lublin	15	4	4	7	-10	-9.9	16
11	GKS Katowice	15	4	3	8	-5	-5.2	15
12	Lechia Gdansk	16	4	3	9	-13	-0.6	15
13	Nieciecza	16	4	3	9	-13	-5.8	15
14	Legia	15	2	7	6	-8	-2.5	13
15	Pogon Szczecin	15	3	3	9	-11	-1.9	12
16	Radomiak Radom	15	2	6	7	-12	-9.3	12
17	Widzew Lodz	16	3	2	11	-7	-1.5	11
18	Arka Gdynia	16	1	3	12	-27	-7.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.