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Eliteserien

Referee: Sivert Amland

Sarpsborg 08

T U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Fredrikstad

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

29%

71%

Both score Ø 57%

43%

71%

Average goals

2,1

3,4

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,11 xG 0,77

60% Possession 40%

12 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 20

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sarpsborg 08 13. · Fredrikstad 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tromso	9	6	2	1	+7	+7.0	20
2	Viking	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.6	18
3	Lillestrom	7	5	1	1	+9	+4.6	16
4	Bodo/Glimt	7	4	1	2	+7	+7.3	13
5	Molde	7	4	1	2	+6	+1.4	13
6	Ham-Kam	7	4	1	2	+0	-1.8	13
7	Brann	8	3	1	4	+7	+4.2	10
8	Sandefjord	7	3	1	3	-2	+0.1	10
9	Kristiansund	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.5	8
10	KFUM Oslo	7	2	2	3	-4	-1.4	8
11	Valerenga	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.6	8
12	Fredrikstad	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
13	Sarpsborg 08	7	1	2	4	-5	-0.3	5
14	Rosenborg	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.7	5
15	Start	8	0	4	4	-10	-4.0	4
16	Aalesund	7	0	3	4	-7	-8.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tromso	6	4	1	1	+5	+7.0	13
2	Viking	4	4	0	0	+12	+4.3	12
3	Ham-Kam	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.7	12
4	Molde	4	3	0	1	+8	+3.1	9
5	Kristiansund	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.0	7
6	Bodo/Glimt	3	2	0	1	+7	+6.9	6
7	Lillestrom	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.8	6
8	KFUM Oslo	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
9	Fredrikstad	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.4	4
10	Rosenborg	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.8	4
11	Sandefjord	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.7	4
12	Valerenga	4	1	1	2	-2	-3.2	4
13	Brann	3	1	0	2	+0	+2.3	3
14	Start	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.7	3
15	Sarpsborg 08	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.6	2
16	Aalesund	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lillestrom	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.8	10
2	Brann	5	2	1	2	+7	+1.8	7
3	Tromso	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.0	7
4	Bodo/Glimt	4	2	1	1	+0	+0.4	7
5	Viking	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.3	6
6	Sandefjord	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.6	6
7	Molde	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
8	Valerenga	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.4	4
9	Sarpsborg 08	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
10	Fredrikstad	4	1	0	3	-7	-3.9	3
11	KFUM Oslo	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.9	2
12	Kristiansund	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.5	1
13	Ham-Kam	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.1	1
14	Aalesund	3	0	1	2	-4	-6.7	1
15	Rosenborg	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.5	1
16	Start	5	0	1	4	-10	-5.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.